033
FXUS62 KKEY 021751
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1251 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN OUR EASTERN
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
- WEATHER WILL TREND DRIER AND MODESTLY WARMER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
- THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA
KEYS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR-SURFACE, MAINLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO AROUND 16 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS BECOMING LESS FREQUENT AND LOWER AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1029 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN STRAITS
OF FLORIDA OFF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS, WITH RESIDUAL SEAS NEAR
7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE POSTED
FOR THE REMAINING STRAITS OF FLORIDA SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOWER
KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, MODERATE, GENERALLY NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES
WILL SLACKEN APPRECIABLY ON TUESDAY, BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE.
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA, AND COULD BRING ANOTHER PUSH OF FRESHENING BREEZES AND
BUILDING SEAS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHILE WE'VE GENERALLY SEEN THE EXTREME ENDS OF BOTH THE
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS FOR THIS EVENT, COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ON
TAP TO START THE WEEK. A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST
EAST OF THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE SLIDING TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODERATE
NORTHERLY BREEZES SUSTAINING THE COOL, DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. THUS, THE ENVIRONMENT CAPTURED BY YESTERDAY EVENING'S KKEY
00Z SOUNDING SHOULD BE A GOOD PREDICTION OF WHAT TODAY'S
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL ENTAIL. A LARGE MASS OF DRY AIR
ABOVE A SHARP INVERSION AT 850 MB WITH DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS
EASILY CALLS FOR ANOTHER ROUND NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL HAVE A FIGHT TO REACH OVER
60 DEGREES TODAY, BUT CLEARER SKIES THAN YESTERDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE DAYTIME HEATING.
THE HIGH WILL KEEP IT'S EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING IT TO STRETCH OUT OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GRADUALLY VEER BREEZES TO THE NORTHEAST BY
LATE TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSISTENTLY INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN AT NIGHT MAY
RESULT IN SOME BOUTS OF RADIATIVE COOLING WITH SOME POSSIBLY
OVERACHIEVING LOW TEMPERATURES. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY THAT WILL THEN
REINFORCE OUR COOLER WEATHER WITH A DAY OR SO OF BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLIES. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE A TOUCH LATER AND LESS
INTENSE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE, BUT STILL LOOK TO DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 54 68 60 71 / 0 0 10 10
MARATHON 50 65 59 70 / 0 0 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ052-
053-072-073.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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