559
FXUS62 KKEY 031616
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1116 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WEATHER WILL TREND DRIER AND MODESTLY WARMER FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
- GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE BREEZES FRESHEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
- THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA
KEYS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
THE 12Z SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED RISING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS BELOW
500 MB. THE SOUNDING ALSO SAMPLED A TREMENDOUSLY DRY PROFILE
THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE. GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALLOWS FOR QUICK DETECTION OF THE LOCATION OF A SURFACE HIGH,
DOCKED DIRECTLY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALONG ITS PERIMETER. THE AFOREMENTIONED RISING HEIGHTS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, NIL RAIN CHANCES, WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TOWARDS THE MID 60S BY THE AFTERNOON. NO
CHANGES PROPOSED.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 508 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
THE MILD WEATHER IS THANKS TO A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE SOUTHEASTERN US, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY MOISTURE
ATTEMPTING TO ENTER THE AREA. UNDER THIS PATTERN THE KEYS WILL
EXPERIENCE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. GOING INTO THURSDAY, WINDS
WILL QUICKLY FRESHEN AND BACK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH
OUR AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, RAIN CHANCES WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE
WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED
FROM LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE KEYS WITH LOWS
PROJECTED IN THE MID TO LOWER 50S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN, WITH THE UPPER KEYS POTENTIALLY SEEING UPPER 40S. STAY
TUNED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 508 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, MODERATE, GENERALLY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NEAR THE END
OF THE WEEK, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS MARINE
ZONES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PUSH OF FRESHENED BREEZES AND
BUILDING SEAS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH NIL RAIN CHANCES. NEAR-SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, OCCASIONALLY GUSTING
16 TO 18 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL BECOME MUCH LESS
FREQUENT OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 66 60 70 61 / 0 0 0 10
MARATHON 64 59 68 60 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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