815
FXUS62 KKEY 040933
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
433 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE
DAYS AND NIGHTS.
- GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
SLACKENING TO LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES TONIGHT.
- THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA
KEYS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, BRINGING WITH IT COOLER
AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
- BREEZES WILL ALSO INCREASE SHARPLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS A BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA. THERE ARE TWO DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGES WITH ONE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SECOND ONE ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A DEEP MEAN LAYER TROUGH REMAINS QUITE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES
KEEPING THE CHILL IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS IS RESULTING IN MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS
SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN REPORTING NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CIMSS MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW)
PRODUCTS SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE KEYS. IN
THE LOWEST LEVELS, SOME MOISTENING HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT.
THIS CAN BEEN SEEN IN THE GOES 19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY
WHERE MAINLY STRATOCUMULUS OCCUPY MUCH OF THE KEYS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, THERE ARE SOME HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE KEYS. SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE QUITE SHALLOW AND THE
MOISTURE ISN'T THAT DEEP, KBYX RADAR HAS NOT DETECTED ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO, KBYX RADAR
IS PICKING UP ON SOME VERY LIGHT RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE STRAITS,
BUT MOST OF THIS IS MOST LIKELY EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
WATER SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOCATIONS OF THE WESTERN LOWER KEYS
AND THE EASTERN UPPER KEYS OBSERVING LOWER TO MID 60S. DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
FORECAST
WINTER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP BREEZES LIGHT TO GENTLE THIS MORNING WITH BREEZES
CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA. BREEZES MAY ALSO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE REMAINS MEAGER AT BEST
RESULTING IN NIL TO NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS AT BEST REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WON'T FALL TOO MUCH FROM DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING IN
THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO SLOWLY CLIMB
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA, WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY.
MOISTURE WILL POOL RESULTING IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, THOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE KEYS SOMETIME LATER IN THE
DAY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY
FRESHENING WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES. GET READY FOR ANOTHER BLOW
AND A RETURN TO COLDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL
ONLY MANAGE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S, POTENTIALLY 70 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUMBLE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE UPPER
KEYS WITH 50 TO 55 DEGREES FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. DRY AIR
WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN NIL RAIN CHANCES FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE REMAINS SCARCE RESULTING IN NEAR NIL
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BREEZES WILL MODESTLY SLACKEN
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED, THOUGH, WE WONT
FULLY GET BACK TO AVERAGE TILL PERHAPS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO SLOWLY CREEP UP EACH DAY THOUGH STILL REMAINING
QUITE COMFORTABLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO
MODERATE, GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THIS HIGH SLOWLY WEAKENS THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN
GRADUALLY SLACKENING BREEZES, POTENTIALLY BECOMING VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS MARINE
ZONES ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
PUSH OF FRESHENED BREEZES AND BUILDING SEAS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. BKN060 CLOUDS WILL BREAK APART IN THE AFTERNOON
LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1996, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 40F WAS
RECORDED IN MARATHON. THIS IS ALSO TIED FOR THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN FEBRUARY. TEMPERATURE DATA FOR
MARATHON DATES BACK TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 68 63 70 55 / 10 10 40 0
MARATHON 67 61 70 52 / 10 10 30 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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