029
FXUS62 KKEY 041605
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1105 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW RAIN CHANCES, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
- GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY SLACKENING TO LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES TONIGHT.
- THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA
KEYS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, BRINGING WITH IT COOLER
AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
- BREEZES WILL ALSO INCREASE SHARPLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1037 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 985 MB, REFLECTIVE OF
STRONG DIURNAL COOLING AT THE SURFACE. THE OVERALL PROFILE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE WAS OVERALL THERMODYNAMICALLY STABLE, WITH
A THIN POINT OF SATURATION RIGHT AT AROUND 9000 FT. GOES-19
VISIBILE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS CLOUD LAYER,
WITH THE SATELLITE DETECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE KEYS AND THE ADJACENT NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS
OWED TO POCKETS OF STRATOCUMULI. WITH A DECENT VEERING WIND
PROFILE (WARM ADVECTION), KBYX RADAR IS DETECTING A FEW ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AS WELL AS THE MARINE ZONES
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO STARTED
TO RESPOND TO THIS WARM ADVECTION, WITH LAND-BASED SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S AT THIS LATE MORNING HOUR.
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY, THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
CLOSING IN ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT
PASSING SHOWER, AND TEMPERATURES RISING A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO
THE UPPER 60S.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WINTER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP BREEZES LIGHT TO GENTLE THIS MORNING WITH BREEZES
CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA. BREEZES MAY ALSO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE REMAINS MEAGER AT BEST
RESULTING IN NIL TO NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS AT BEST REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WON'T FALL TOO MUCH FROM DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING IN
THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO SLOWLY CLIMB
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA, WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY.
MOISTURE WILL POOL RESULTING IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, THOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE KEYS SOMETIME LATER IN THE
DAY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY
FRESHENING WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES. GET READY FOR ANOTHER BLOW
AND A RETURN TO COLDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL
ONLY MANAGE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S, POTENTIALLY 70 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUMBLE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE UPPER
KEYS WITH 50 TO 55 DEGREES FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. DRY AIR
WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN NIL RAIN CHANCES FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE REMAINS SCARCE RESULTING IN NEAR NIL
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BREEZES WILL MODESTLY SLACKEN
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED, THOUGH, WE WONT
FULLY GET BACK TO AVERAGE TILL PERHAPS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO SLOWLY CREEP UP EACH DAY THOUGH STILL REMAINING
QUITE COMFORTABLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1037 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO
MODERATE, GENERALLY NORTHEAST BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT, SUPPORTING LIGHT AND AT TIMES
VARIABLE WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS MARINE
ZONES ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
PUSH OF FRESHENED BREEZES AND BUILDING SEAS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
DESPITE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF BKN CIGS BASED AT AROUND 060 AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST
WINDS 8 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES,
POSSIBLY BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 12Z. IMPACTS OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE 18Z AND 00Z TAF ISSUANCES, INCLUDING
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS AND CROSSWIND CHALLENGES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 68 63 70 55 / 10 10 40 0
MARATHON 67 61 70 52 / 10 10 30 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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