615
FXUS62 KKEY 050327
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1027 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW RAIN CHANCES, ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
- THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA
KEYS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, BRINGING WITH IT COOLER.
- BREEZES WILL INCREASE SHARPLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 858 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND BROADLY NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE KEYS THIS
EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO AN ATLANTIC RIDGE RETREATING FURTHER
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHEASTERN GULF.
CONSIDERABLE MODERATION HAS TAKEN PLACE ALONG THE KEYS OVER THE
PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS AND TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BROADLY IN THE MID
60S WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 60. THIS EVENING SOUNDING INDICATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS CLIMBED TO NEAR ONE INCH WITH SUBSTANTIAL
LOW LEVEL VEERING REMAINING. THIS VEERING CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE KEYS. WHILE STRONG
INHIBITION WAS SEEN AROUND 800 MB, SCATTERED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY SPRUNG UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS
SOUTH OF THE LINGERING SOUTH FLORIDA CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WHILE RETREAT FURTHER EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM
THE BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH PRESSES FURTHER
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS A RESULT, PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN WEAK AND KEEP BREEZES
LIGHT, GRADUALLY BECOMING BROADLY WESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE STRONG VEERING WILL FALL APART OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY
TO MODEST BACKING. THIS MAY HELP TO DIMINISH CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT.
HOWEVER, DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A DEGREE OR TWO,
RESULTING IN LIMITED RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH NEAR 60 WITH VANISHING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.
AS A RESULT, A SOGGY MORNING IS ON TAP. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY
BE PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS, WHERE A WEAK LAND BREEZE MAY HELP
TO PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
50S. FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NEBULOUS FLOW AND WEAKENING VEERING. EVEN SO,
A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO FAIRLY HIGH INHIBITION
BASED AROUND 800 MB.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RACE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE KEYS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN WAKE OF
THIS FRONT, NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL SURGE CONSIDERABLY. EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN. BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE THURSDAY EVENING. MARINE WINDS
SHOULD PEAK SLIGHTLY BELOW GALE WARNING CRITERIA. WHILE NOT AS
COLD AS THE PREVIOUS HISTORIC COLD FRONT, SHARPLY COOLER AIR WILL
POUR IN ACROSS THE KEYS THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THAT NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 40S, WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
IN THE LEE OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 858 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
A NEBULOUS PRESSURE FIELD STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS IS RESULTING IN LIGHT MOSTLY NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO REMAIN WEAK OVERNIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RACE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
KEYS WATERS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. A FEW HOURS
OF NEAR 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR OUR DEEP GULF ZONES BY LATE MORNING, AND ALL
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. BREEZES SHOULD MODERATE CONSIDERABLY ON
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 858 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS,
POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST, BECOMING WEST.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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