727
FXUS62 KKEY 051613
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1113 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRESS THROUGH THE KEYS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS.
- OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S, WITH 50 TO 55 DEGREES FOR THE MIDDLE
AND LOWER KEYS. DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH
THE MID 60S.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS, AS WINDS WILL SHARPLY INCREASE AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH.
- A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
KBYX RADAR IS DETECTING A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS LATE MORNING HOUR. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED A VERY DRY LOW-
LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC PROFILE. AS THE FRONT PASSES, THIS LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, EASILY GUSTING TO NEAR 30 MPH ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
ALTHOUGH MOST COMMUNITIES WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MEASURABLE
RAINFALL, THE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT A WINDY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DROPPING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON, THEN INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS
EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WINTER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AREA, WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. MOISTURE WILL POOL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, THOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE KEYS SOMETIME LATER TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
RAPIDLY FRESHENING WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES. GET READY FOR
ANOTHER BLOW AND A RETURN TO COLDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THE PEAK
OF THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GRADUAL SLACKENING THEREAFTER. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S, THOUGH, THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND THEN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUMBLE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE
UPPER KEYS WITH 50 TO 55 DEGREES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS.
DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN NIL RAIN
CHANCES FOR TONIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN,
THOUGH, THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. THEREFORE, BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN A REINFORCING WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS SOMETIME SATURDAY
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE
PATTERN FOR THE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. MOISTURE REMAINS SCARCE RESULTING IN NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BREEZES WILL MODESTLY SLACKEN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES PREVAILING THROUGH
THE PERIOD ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. HOWEVER, WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE POTENTIALLY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, BREEZES MAY INCREASE
BACK TO MODERATE TO FRESH FOR A TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED, THOUGH, WE WONT FULLY GET
BACK TO AVERAGE TILL PERHAPS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO SLOWLY CREEP UP EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY MID
NEXT WEEK ONWARD, THOUGH STILL REMAINING QUITE COMFORTABLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
KEYS MARINE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER PUSH OF FRESHENED BREEZES AND BUILDING SEAS FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC.
AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BREEZES WILL SLACKEN.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, THROUGH EYW JUST BEFORE 17Z, THEN THROUGH MTH
AROUND 18Z. WINDS WILL SUDDENLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
SUB-VFR LEVELS. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
BECOMING IFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS, THEN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CROSSWINDS MAY ALSO BECOME A CHALLENGE AT
THE TERMINALS, WITH NORTHERLY COMPONENTS TO THE WIND GUST AT 23 TO
25 KNOTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 72 55 66 59 / 60 0 0 0
MARATHON 71 52 64 57 / 40 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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