888
FXUS62 KKEY 060348
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1048 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS.
- OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S, WITH 50 TO 55 DEGREES FOR THE MIDDLE
AND LOWER KEYS. DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH
THE MID 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT HAS DESCENDED UPON THE FLORIDA KEYS
THIS EVENING. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS FRONT, THE PEAK OF OUR
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SEEMS TO HAVE ALREADY PASSED AS FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG BREEZES ARE CURRENTLY RECORDED ALONG THE REEF.
THIS IS PARTLY DUE TO THIS BEING A WEAKER FRONT AND ALSO DUE TO
WINDS QUICKLY TURNING MORE NORTHERLY WITH DRAINAGE FROM MAINLAND
BEING INTRODUCED. KBYX RADAR IS UNSURPRISINGLY CLEAR OF
PRECIPITABLE ECHOES AS ALL OBSERVED PRECIPITATION OVER LAND FOR
THE DAY OCCURRED IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MEANWHILE,
TEMPERATURES NOW VARY GREATLY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH THE
LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER KEYS AND MID 50S OVER THE UPPER KEYS. THIS
IS PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL JUMP FROM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S EARLY TODAY
WITH A NEARLY 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE OBSERVED AT KEY LARGO.
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY THE AFTERMATH OF THIS
REINFORCING FRONT. WHILE BREEZES HAVE DECLINED A GOOD DEAL FROM
THEIR PEAK, HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW. OUR KKEY 00Z BALLOON SOUNDING FROM THIS EVENING NOTES
AN EXTREMELY DRY POCKET OF AIR ABOVE 850 MB WITH STRONGLY BACKING
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. NOT ONLY WILL THIS FLOW BE ABLE TO MIX
DOWN OVERNIGHT CREATING SOME GUSTY POCKETS AMONG THE WIND FIELD,
BUT IT ALSO SIGNALS COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO HIT THE UPPER 40S IN THE UPPER KEYS AND LOWER TO MID
50S ELSEWHERE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
OFF TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM ROCKETS INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT THE WESTERN GULF TO TAKE OVER. WHAT RESULTS IS A
DRY AND COOL BUT WARMING WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER AT THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE
FLORIDA KEYS ON FRIDAY, BREEZES WILL SOMEWHAT SLACKEN, ALTHOUGH
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND, SUPPORTING
MODERATE NORTHWEST BREEZES. AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BREEZES WILL SLACKEN AND CLOCK
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TONIGHT.
WHILE FREQUENT NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY
CAUSE SOME CROSSWIND CONCERNS EARLY ON, BREEZES WILL SLACKEN
GRADUALLY INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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