324
FXUS62 KKEY 060939
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
439 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEST SLACKENING IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE FOR HAWK CHANNEL AND THE BAYSIDE
AND GULFSIDE WATERS.
- DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID
60S.
- NIL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS DRY
AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
USING CIMSS PRODUCTS FOR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING, WE CONTINUE TO
SEE A SIMILAR THEME WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH AND RIDGE PATTERN.
THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OUT WEST AND A DEEP MEAN LAYER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
UNITED STATES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH IS ANOTHER RIDGE WHICH IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. AT THE SURFACE, THE
KEYS REMAIN IN BETWEEN A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND SOUTH TEXAS. THIS IS RESULTING IN MARINE
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN OBSERVING
NORTHWEST BREEZES OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS NORTH OF THE CHAIN AND 15 TO
20 KNOTS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN. GOES 19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
(TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS PWAT VALUES OF 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT
THE KEYS WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF VERY DRY AIR. THIS IS BELOW THE
10TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. KBYX RADAR IS NOT DETECTING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. GOES 19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE KEYS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CUMULUS
OF STRATOCUMULUS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE BETWEEN
50 TO 55 DEGREES IN THE UPPER KEYS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN
THE UPPER KEYS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE LOWER KEYS.
FORECAST
WINTER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN THE
WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN,
THOUGH, THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. THEREFORE, BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME FROM TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN A REINFORCING WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS SOMETIME SATURDAY
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE PATTERN
FOR THE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE REMAINS SCARCE RESULTING IN NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. BREEZES WILL MODESTLY SLACKEN TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. HOWEVER, WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE
POTENTIALLY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, BREEZES MAY INCREASE BACK TO
MODERATE TO FRESH FOR A TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED, THOUGH, WE WONT FULLY GET BACK TO
AVERAGE TILL PERHAPS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO SLOWLY CREEP UP EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY MID NEXT
WEEK ONWARD, THOUGH STILL REMAINING QUITE COMFORTABLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) UNTIL WINDS DECREASE IS HEADLINED FOR HAWK
CHANNEL AND THE BAYSIDE AND GULFSIDE WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, MODERATE
TO FRESH BREEZES, THOUGH FRESH TO STRONG FOR THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA, WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE
FLORIDA KEYS TODAY, BREEZES WILL SOMEWHAT SLACKEN, ALTHOUGH
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND, SUPPORTING
MODERATE NORTHWEST BREEZES. AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BREEZES WILL SLACKEN AND CLOCK
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NIL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS VAST DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE KEYS. NEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY BETWEEN
9 TO 15 KNOTS. FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1966, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 49F WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 66 59 72 59 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 64 57 72 57 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ033-
034-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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