094
FXUS62 KKEY 071522
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1022 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL, BUT
GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- NIL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS DRY
AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
COOL, DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT DIPPED INTO THE MID 50S AT KEY
WEST AND IN THE UPPER KEYS. THE "WINNER" FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOW WAS
AT BIG PINE KEY WHERE THE RAWS SENSOR RECORDED A TEMPERATURE OF
45 DEGREES. WEATHER SAVVY OBSERVERS MIGHT NOTE WHAT HAPPENED TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP THAT MUCH; WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS COLLAPSED BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, BUOYS ALONG THE REEF WERE
SAMPLING MODERATE BREEZES AFTER SUNRISE. WHAT HAPPENED WAS THE
SERIES OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASSES WERE SUFFICIENT TO DROP THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE BAYSIDE AND GULFSIDE WATERS TO THE UPPER 50S IN
FLORIDA BAY, LOWER 60S AT VACA KEY, AND MID 60S AT KEY WEST. WE
ACTUALLY SAW WHAT HAPPENS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE SPRING
AND SUMMER; WHEN WARMER AIR MOVES OVER A COLDER MASS OF WATER,
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE.
THE MESOSCALE COLLAPSE IN WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPERATURE DID NOT LAST
THAT LONG. WESTERLIES WERE SAMPLED AT MARINE STATIONS BY MIDNIGHT
LAST NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE, WHILE STABLE, BECAME WELL MIXED BY THE
TIME THE 12Z KKEY BALLOON WAS RELEASED. WIND SPEEDS DRAMATICALLY
INCREASED WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE, AND A WELL MIXED
LAYER WAS PRESENT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION. WHILE THIS
PATTERN SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THE ATMOSPHERE ENDED UP
BEING TOO DRY. THE SAMPLED PWAT WAS JUST BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE
VALUE FOR THE DAY AND MULTIPLE DRY LAYERS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. EVERY WEATHER OBSERVATION SUGGESTS THE DAY WILL BE RATHER
CALM WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND ALMOST NO
CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SUGGESTS AIR DRAINING OFF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL HELP FUEL A NIGHTTIME WIND SURGE. WHICH IS GOOD
NEWS FOR MOST KEYS LOCALS; THIS PATTERN INDICATES TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S., WE
WILL INITIALLY SEE NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY BUT GRADUALLY
CLOCK TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH SETTLES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE DECENT NOCTURNAL
SURGE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WINDS UNDERGO A WAX AND WANE UNDULATION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA DURING THE WEEK AND MAY ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER MORE
EASTERLY. THIS WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE LESS THAN
THE 10 TO 20 DEGREES DEVIATIONS WE SAW WITH THE TWO MOST RECENT
COLD FRONT PASSAGES.
LOOKING AT THE 4-7 DAY TIME FRAME, THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF ANY MORE COLD FRONT PASSAGES, BUT THAT CAN ALWAYS
CHANGE. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WITH
GENERALLY AN EAST WIND AND GRADUALLY MODERATE TEMPERATURES WITH
NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 925 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
BREEZES HAVE FRESHENED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND EXPECTING BREEZES TO SLACKEN SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE TODAY. AS A HIGH PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT, WE WILL SEE ONE MORE DECENT
NOCTURNAL SURGE AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A
LARGER SWATH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THEREAFTER, THE HIGH
WILL SLOWLY STALL ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND THEN
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. AS THIS
OCCURS, EXPECT BREEZES TO WAX AND WANE, PEAKING OVERNIGHT, AND
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
SKY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE UNCOMMON AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS, BUT
THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO LEAVE CLOUDS OUT OF THE
TAFS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. NEAR SURFACE BREEZES WILL VEER
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. A GUST GROUP MAY BE NECESSARY TO ACCOUNT
FOR AN OVERNIGHT WIND SURGE.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1978, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 48F WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 71 60 69 62 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 68 58 68 60 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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