228
FXUS62 KKEY 071805
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE ACROSS
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL, BUT
GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- NIL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS DRY
AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE KEYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE TAF PERIOD. A
LATE AFTERNOON PULSE IN WINDS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY CONDITIONS AND
STRONGER WINDS AT EYW THAN MTH. OVERNIGHT, A WIND SURGE FROM THE
PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO VEER WINDS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY. VEERING AND SLACKENING WINDS AFTER SUNRISE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S., WE
WILL INITIALLY SEE NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY BUT GRADUALLY
CLOCK TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH SETTLES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE DECENT NOCTURNAL
SURGE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WINDS UNDERGO A WAX AND WANE UNDULATION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA DURING THE WEEK AND MAY ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER MORE
EASTERLY. THIS WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE LESS THAN
THE 10 TO 20 DEGREES DEVIATIONS WE SAW WITH THE TWO MOST RECENT
COLD FRONT PASSAGES.
LOOKING AT THE 4-7 DAY TIME FRAME, THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF ANY MORE COLD FRONT PASSAGES, BUT THAT CAN ALWAYS
CHANGE. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WITH
GENERALLY AN EAST WIND AND GRADUALLY MODERATE TEMPERATURES WITH
NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 925 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
BREEZES HAVE FRESHENED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND EXPECTING BREEZES TO SLACKEN SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE TODAY. AS A HIGH PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT, WE WILL SEE ONE MORE DECENT
NOCTURNAL SURGE AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A
LARGER SWATH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THEREAFTER, THE HIGH
WILL SLOWLY STALL ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND THEN
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. AS THIS
OCCURS, EXPECT BREEZES TO WAX AND WANE, PEAKING OVERNIGHT, AND
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1978, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 48F WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 71 60 69 62 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 68 58 68 60 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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