659
FXUS62 KKEY 150315
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1015 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR INCREASING WINDS IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
FEWER INTERESTING FEATURES WERE PRESENT THIS EVENING WHEN
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. GOES EAST SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS DID NOT OBSERVE AN APPROACHING MASS OF LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS NEAR THE KEYS WATERS. THE KBYX RADAR SHOWED STRAY SHOWERS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH WERE MOVING AWAY FROM LAND. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS BEGINNING TO WARM UP. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE KEYS
ROSE FROM LAST NIGHT'S NEAR 70 TO THE LOWER 70S WITH AN
ACCOMPANIED INCREASE IN DEW POINTS TO THE MID 60S. THE KKEY 00Z
SOUNDING SAMPLED AN ENVIRONMENT OF NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE, JUST
BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF 1.07 INCHES. ANOTHER FEW
FEATURES HIGHLIGHTED WHY SHOWERS WERE STRUGGLING TO FORM, WEAKLY
BACKING WINDS IN THE LOWEST 8 KFT AND A PRONOUNCED INVERSION ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OVERALL, THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF NEAR SURFACE
KINEMATICS SUGGESTS A MOSTLY CLEAR AND NEARLY RAIN FREE NIGHT.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO FRESHEN BREEZES TO MODERATE TO FRESH
OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR INCREASING WINDS IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GULF COAST TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NUDGE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE KEYS MONDAY EVENING. A POTENT SURGE OF NORTHERLY
BREEZES IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BREEZES WILL
QUICKLY SLACKEN AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN GULF BASIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING
TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR FL025 ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TERMINALS, BUT CLOUD COVER IS SPARSE ENOUGH TO GO SKC
UNTIL SUNRISE. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AND CONTINUE VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 76 68 78 68 / 10 10 10 20
MARATHON 75 68 78 69 / 10 10 10 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page