085
FXUS62 KKEY 150954
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
454 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY, BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ELEVATES RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
THIS MORNING UNTIL WINDS SLACKEN TODAY.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
A MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL SUNDAY MORNING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS. KBYX RADAR DOES NOT CURRENTLY DETECT ANY PRECIPITABLE
ECHOES AND HAS NOT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. GOES-19 NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY NOTES A FIELD OF SPOTTY STRATOCU STREAMING
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THESE CLOUDS ARE FEW IN NUMBER AND GENERALLY QUICK TO DISSIPATE
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR LAND AREAS. OFFSHORE
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS ALONG THE REEF REPORT MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH SOUTHEAST BREEZES. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE WARMER WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 70S AND ARE A LARGER DISTANCE AWAY FROM DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 60S THAN YESTERDAY'S VERY MOIST MORNING.
THESE ELEVATED BREEZES ARE A RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDING EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OUT
INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TODAY BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY
SLACKEN TO GENTLE TO MODERATE. TONIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
START VEERING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
DRAGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE KEYS LATE MONDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE EXPECTED IMPACT IS
ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AND WITH THE
FRONT. NORTHERLY BREEZES WITH THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO
THE EAST AND SLACKEN BY THE END OF TUESDAY. THIS DOES MEAN WE'LL
SEE A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS APPROACHING THE
LOWER 60S, BUT WIND QUICKLY RETURNING TO A NORMAL DIRECTION WILL
MILD OUT TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT MORNING.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. HIGH PRESSURE
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WITH EASTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
MILD CONDITIONS AND NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES AS DRY AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS MEANINGFUL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
BUT REMAINED NOSED OVER FLORIDA RESULTING IN A SHIFT TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES AT THE END OF THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
HINTING AT THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
WE ARE REGARDING THIS SOLUTION WITH SKEPTICISM DUE TO HOW FAR OUT
IT IS FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS, BUT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE ON THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY
TODAY. BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN AND VEER AS THE HIGH ESCAPES
INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NUDGES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE KEYS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITHOUT A POTENT SURGE OF NORTHERLY
BREEZES IN ITS WAKE. BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN AND VEER TO
THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO
THE EASTERN GULF BASIN AND KEEPS HOLD OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN INTO
THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH EYW AND MTH FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
SPARSE CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, BUT NOT AT COVERAGE
TO CAUSE CIGS. WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY VEER SOUTHEASTERLY.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY IN 1985, THE DAILY RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURE OF 49F WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE DATA FOR
KEY WEST DATES BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 78 67 77 63 / 10 30 20 10
MARATHON 77 69 77 65 / 10 30 20 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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