740
FXUS62 KKEY 151535
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1035 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF TODAY, BEFORE AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ELEVATES RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT. AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN HAWK CHANNEL AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA UNTIL WINDS SLACKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST, WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST, APPROACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE INTERACTION OF THESE
FEATURES HAS PRODUCED OVERACHIEVING WIND SPEEDS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE ADJACENT MARINE ZONES. THE 12Z
MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED A WELL-MIXED PROFILE FROM JUST
ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AT THE SURFACE TO AROUND 900 MB,
WITH TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR ABOVE. IT SHOULD THUS COME AS
NO SURPRISE THAT GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ONLY
DETECTING ISOLATED FAIR WEATHER CUMULI, WITH KBYX METEOROLOGICALLY
ECHO FREE. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WARM SOUTHERLIES, TEMPERATURES
WILL EASILY PEAK INTO THE UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY CLIPPING NEAR 80F. OUTSIDE OF MINOR UPTICKS IN
WIND SPEEDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS, NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
ELEVATED BREEZES ARE A RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDING EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OUT
INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TODAY BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY
SLACKEN TO GENTLE TO MODERATE. TONIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
START VEERING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DRAGS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE KEYS LATE MONDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE EXPECTED IMPACT IS ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT.
NORTHERLY BREEZES WITH THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE EAST
AND SLACKEN BY THE END OF TUESDAY. THIS DOES MEAN WE'LL SEE A
BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS APPROACHING THE LOWER
60S, BUT WIND QUICKLY RETURNING TO A NORMAL DIRECTION WILL MILD
OUT TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT MORNING.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. HIGH PRESSURE
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WITH EASTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
MILD CONDITIONS AND NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES AS DRY AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS MEANINGFUL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
BUT REMAINED NOSED OVER FLORIDA RESULTING IN A SHIFT TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES AT THE END OF THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
HINTING AT THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
WE ARE REGARDING THIS SOLUTION WITH SKEPTICISM DUE TO HOW FAR OUT
IT IS FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
OBSERVED WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE REEF REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS AT THIS LATE MORNING HOUR. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES ARE INCLUDED UNTIL WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR HAWK CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FROM
SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA OUTER BANKS
INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE ON THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN AND VEER AS
THE HIGH ESCAPES INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NUDGES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE KEYS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITHOUT A POTENT
SURGE OF NORTHERLY BREEZES IN ITS WAKE. BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLACKEN AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN GULF BASIN AND KEEPS HOLD OF OUR
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH AROUND 21Z, BEFORE
GUSTS DECREASE AND BECOME LESS FREQUENT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH LACK
OF COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY FOR WINDOWS OF DEVELOPMENT WARRANTS
KEEPING OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 78 67 77 63 / 10 30 20 10
MARATHON 77 69 77 65 / 10 30 20 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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