377
FXUS62 KKEY 160240
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
940 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL WANE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT WHILE THE APPROACH OF
A COLD FRONT ELEVATES RAIN CHANCES. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES,
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE WORK WEEK. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS MID
WEEK.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 945 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
FLORIDA WEATHER WAS RATHER ACTIVE TODAY. A FAST-MOVING SURFACE LOW
SWEPT THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE STATE WERE BRIEFLY UNDER A TORNADO WATCH THANKS TO
THIS SYSTEM. THE FLORIDA KEYS WERE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME KIND OF
ACTIVE WEATHER. WHILE A WIND SURGE OCCURRED IN THE MORNING HOURS
BECAUSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
ATLANTIC, LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WERE MEASURED ALONG THE REEF
THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE PAIRED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. THE KKEY 00Z BALLOON SAMPLED AN ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR
NORMAL PWAT, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 50TH PERCENTILE, AND LIGHTLY VEERING
WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 8 KFT. HOWEVER, A VERY WELL-DEFINED
TEMPERATURE INVERSION OF ABOUT 8 DEGREES F WILL CAP ANY SHOWERS
THAT TRY TO DEVELOP. THE PROBLEM IS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
LINGERS OVER THE KEYS, AND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS TOMORROW
MORNING. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY, ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, AND TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. PREPARE FOR SOME
GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POSSIBLE SHOWER.
ANY WEATHER PREPARATIONS IN THE KEYS WILL BE MUCH EASIER THAN THE
COUNTIES IN CALIFORNIA THAT ARE UNDER WINTER STORM WARNINGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 945 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
FROM SYNOPSIS, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST FROM GEORGIA
INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THIS SYSTEM
IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF TOWARDS THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL VEER
NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE MONDAY. NO POTENT SURGE IN BREEZES IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BREEZES MAY SLACKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER THE
FRONT BEFORE VEERING EASTERLY ON TUESDAY. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 945 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE VEERING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FORECAST BETWEEN
12 AND 18Z. SHORT LIVED MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND ALONG THE
FRONT AND ANY SHOWERS THAT MANAGE TO FORM. WHILE UNLIKELY, VCSH
CONDITIONS WERE ADDED TO THE TAFS AT BOTH SITES. AFTER 18Z, EXPECT
SKIES TO RAPIDLY CLEAR AND BREEZES TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT NOT AT MAGNITUDES TO WARRANT
INCLUSION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 67 77 63 77 / 20 30 0 0
MARATHON 69 77 65 77 / 20 20 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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