258
FXUS62 KKEY 160939
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
439 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL PERSISTS THIS MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE KEYS TODAY. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES,
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
- GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL VEER TO THE NORTH
MOVING INTO TONIGHT. THEN, GENERALLY EAST LIGHT TO GENTLE
BREEZES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE WORK WEEK. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS MID WEEK.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 435 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WE HAVE SOME ACTIVITY IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
THIS MORNING FOLLOWING A SPELL OF QUIET WEATHER. KBYX RADAR
DETECTS A COUPLE LINES OF SHALLOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH OUR
SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS AND WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE
NORTHERNMOST OF THESE LINES IS STARTING TO SCRAPE ACROSS THE
LOWER KEYS AS IT MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST AT NEAR 20 KNOTS. JUST
NORTH OF OUR CWA, OUR RADAR ALSO NOTES THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DIVING ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTLINE.
MEANWHILE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST BREEZES PREVAIL ALONG THE
REEF WATERS HAVING TURNED FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S AND
DEW POINTS NEAR 70 RESULTING IN ANOTHER HUMID START TO THE DAY.
TODAY'S BIG WEATHER STORY IS UNDOUBTEDLY THE WEAK COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO SWEEP OVER OUR AREA. THIS INITIAL SPURT OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING UNTIL
IT EITHER EXITS OR DISSIPATES FOLLOWING SUNRISE. MINUS ANY OTHER
POP UP DEVELOPMENTS TO FOLLOW, THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN WILL COME
WITH THE MAIN PREFRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IF IT CAN HOLD ITSELF TOGETHER TO
MAKE IT TO THE ISLAND CHAIN. LAST NIGHT'S 00Z KKEY BALLOON
SOUNDING NOTED A DECENTLY MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BELOW AN
INVERSION AROUND 800 MB, BUT ALSO INCLUDED A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE, WE DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND
TODAY BUT CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE THEM OUT IN THE WARMER WATERS OF
THE GULF STREAM OR OUT IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF WHERE MORE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN PREFRONTAL LINE COULD FORCE A FEW TOWERS
TO DEVELOP. WHILE THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SURGE OF WINDS
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM
THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.
WHILE THIS FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG, WE WILL STILL SEE A BRIEF
COOL DOWN. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE MID 60S, JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGHS WILL QUICKLY RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH
BREEZES RETURNING BACK TO THE USUAL EASTERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES BACK CONTROL OVER SOUTHEAST CONUS. FROM THERE INTO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A PRIMARILY DRY AND WARMING PATTERN TAKES
OVER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY MAKING IT BACK UP TO
THE 80S. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE PICKED UP BY GLOBAL
MODELS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK HOWEVER, AND STILL LOOKS MUCH
STRONGER THAN TODAY'S PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE
SOLUTION TRENDS FOR THIS FEATURE FOR NOW, SO STAY TUNED IN THE
MEANTIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 435 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY. MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL VEER NORTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT. NO
POTENT SURGE IN BREEZES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BREEZES MAY
SLACKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER THE FRONT BEFORE VEERING EASTERLY ON
TUESDAY. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK
WHILE ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
THROUGH 17/06Z, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT EYW AND
MTH. WIDELY SEPARATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MONDAY
MORNING WITH VICINITY SHOWERS INDICATED UNTIL SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF VICINITY SHOWERS IS INDICATED AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS WITH EITHER VCSH EPISODE WITH HOURLY
CHANCES IN THE 15 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE, AND LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT FROM
ANY TEMPO MENTIONS AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO WEST AFTER SUNRISE,
THEN NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DATE IN KEY WEST WEATHER HISTORY, THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE
DATE OF 84F WAS SET IN 1927, WITH THE RECORD LOW 53F SET MORE
RECENTLY IN 1991.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JR
DATA ACQUISITION.....JR
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