839
FXUS62 KKEY 161503
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1003 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE KEYS. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES,
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
- GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL VEER TO THE NORTH
MOVING INTO TONIGHT. THEN, GENERALLY EAST LIGHT TO GENTLE
BREEZES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE WORK WEEK. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS MID WEEK.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, WE HAVE BEEN
TRACKING A LINE OF SHOWERS STEADILY MARCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GULF AND HAS ENTERED OUR WATERS OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THIS
LINE OF SHOWERS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS HAVE
BEEN GRADUALLY VEERING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLIER HAVE BECOME WEST THIS
HOUR AND WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. DESPITE
THE IMPENDING FRONT, NOT MUCH RAIN HAS FALLEN WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH AND EVEN THE APPROACHING FRONT IS
DIMINISHING WHAT SHOWERS IT DID HAVE. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE SEEN
MORE SUN THAN USUAL (CONSIDERING A FRONT IS ARRIVING SOON) AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, EXPECTING NOT ONLY A SWITCH OF WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK SURGE IN WINDS. THE BIGGER AFTER
EFFECT OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DRIER AIR. THIS
DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS (IF IT MANAGES TO REACH THE KEYS) WILL BE
THE LAST SHOT OF RAIN FOR A WHILE. LOOKING TO BE DRY FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 5 DAYS, WHICH IS NOT HELPING THE DEVELOPING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS
MORNING'S UPDATE CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZES THIS MORNING WILL CLOCK AROUND
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS TIME, BREEZES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO FRESHEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PRESENT ACROSS MAINLY THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WATERS. MARINERS
ENCOUNTERING THE STRONGER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND CEASE OR EXIT THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNSET.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL
PASS THROUGH BY 17-19Z TODAY. SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ARE
WEAKENING AND POSE LITTLE IMPACTS TO CIG/VIS AT THIS TIME.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 435 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WE HAVE SOME ACTIVITY IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
THIS MORNING FOLLOWING A SPELL OF QUIET WEATHER. KBYX RADAR
DETECTS A COUPLE LINES OF SHALLOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH OUR
SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS AND WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE
NORTHERNMOST OF THESE LINES IS STARTING TO SCRAPE ACROSS THE
LOWER KEYS AS IT MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST AT NEAR 20 KNOTS. JUST
NORTH OF OUR CWA, OUR RADAR ALSO NOTES THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DIVING ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTLINE.
MEANWHILE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST BREEZES PREVAIL ALONG THE
REEF WATERS HAVING TURNED FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S AND
DEW POINTS NEAR 70 RESULTING IN ANOTHER HUMID START TO THE DAY.
TODAY'S BIG WEATHER STORY IS UNDOUBTEDLY THE WEAK COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO SWEEP OVER OUR AREA. THIS INITIAL SPURT OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING UNTIL
IT EITHER EXITS OR DISSIPATES FOLLOWING SUNRISE. MINUS ANY OTHER
POP UP DEVELOPMENTS TO FOLLOW, THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN WILL COME
WITH THE MAIN PREFRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IF IT CAN HOLD ITSELF TOGETHER TO
MAKE IT TO THE ISLAND CHAIN. LAST NIGHT'S 00Z KKEY BALLOON
SOUNDING NOTED A DECENTLY MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BELOW AN
INVERSION AROUND 800 MB, BUT ALSO INCLUDED A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE, WE DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND
TODAY BUT CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE THEM OUT IN THE WARMER WATERS OF
THE GULF STREAM OR OUT IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF WHERE MORE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN PREFRONTAL LINE COULD FORCE A FEW TOWERS
TO DEVELOP. WHILE THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SURGE OF WINDS
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM
THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.
WHILE THIS FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG, WE WILL STILL SEE A BRIEF
COOL DOWN. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE MID 60S, JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGHS WILL QUICKLY RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH
BREEZES RETURNING BACK TO THE USUAL EASTERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES BACK CONTROL OVER SOUTHEAST CONUS. FROM THERE INTO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A PRIMARILY DRY AND WARMING PATTERN TAKES
OVER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY MAKING IT BACK UP TO
THE 80S. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE PICKED UP BY GLOBAL
MODELS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK HOWEVER, AND STILL LOOKS MUCH
STRONGER THAN TODAY'S PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE
SOLUTION TRENDS FOR THIS FEATURE FOR NOW, SO STAY TUNED IN THE
MEANTIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 78 63 78 68 / 20 0 0 0
MARATHON 80 65 79 69 / 20 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page