596
FXUS62 KKEY 170928
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
428 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES THIS MORNING FRESHEN
TO GENTLE TO MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZES REMAIN GENTLE TO
MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL INCREASE
TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS MID WEEK.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
A QUIET NIGHT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. GOES TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) SHOWS PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 0.65
INCHES TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND 0.95 INCHES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ACROSS THE STRAITS. KBYX RADAR IS VOID
OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. GOES NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
SHOWS MOSTLY SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE KEYS WITH A
SMALL LINE OF STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL STRAITS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE KEYS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE LOWER KEYS TO THE LOWER
70S IN THE UPPER KEYS. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS, THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
RESEMBLES A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN WITH ONE TROUGH OVER THE
WEST COAST, MAINLY RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND TROUGHING
AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY THIS MORNING. MARINE
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE
LOWER KEYS ARE OBSERVING 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE UPPER KEYS.
FORECAST
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE KEYS. THE
HIGH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST SETTING UP SHOP ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. BREEZES WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHEAST TO EAST
THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFF THE COAST. SINCE THE HIGH ISN'T
EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE KEYS CAN
EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST BREEZES FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE KEYS LEADING TO NIL RAIN CHANCES. THIS WON'T BODE WELL FOR THE
ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS FLORIDA. UNFORTUNATELY, WE DON'T SEE ANY
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL START
BELOW AVERAGE THIS MORNING BUT WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH POTENTIALLY
A FEW MID 80 DEGREE READINGS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE AS
WE HEAD TOWARDS LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF A POTENTIALLY "BRING IT" COLD FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW, THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS A
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES, DIP IN HUMIDITY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, AND A BREEZY PERIOD ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY. THE MAGNITUDE AND INTENSITY OF THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROMOTE
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES TODAY BECOMING EAST
TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. BREEZES SLACKEN TO MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE,
EXCEPT REMAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE ACROSS THE STRAITS, FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE THIS HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY. NEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL START OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS EARLY, BECOMING EASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY IN 1996, THE DAILY RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 46F WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE DATA
FOR KEY WEST DATES BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 78 70 80 72 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 79 71 81 72 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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