766
FXUS62 KKEY 171527
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1027 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- BREEZES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AND FRESHENING THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
BREEZES REMAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WHILE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS MID WEEK.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
THE KEYS ARE IN A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS HAS LED TO A SURGE
IN EASTERLY WINDS WHICH SHOWS UP VERY WELL IN BOTH SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY. THE LOWER KEYS ARE THE LAST HOLD OUT WITH A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND. IN ADDITION, RIGHT ALONG THIS INTERSECTION
OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST BUTTING UP AGAINST THE NORTHEAST TO EAST, WE
HAVE A NARROW LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK. THIS HAS BEEN STUBBORNLY
HOLDING ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT BUT AS WE GET
DEEPER INTO THE MORNING HOURS, WE SHOULD MIX IT OUT AND SHOVE IT
WESTWARD. THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING SHOULD A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION
SITUATED WHERE THE DECK OF STRATUS IS. ABOVE THIS HOWEVER, WAS
QUICKLY REPLACED WITH MUCH DRIER AIR.
THIS DRY AIR WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY. ANY ISOLATED
THREAT WE MAY HAVE, WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
THAT IS SLIDING WESTWARD AS THE EASTERLIES COME IN AND REALLY ONLY
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE RAIN
CHANCES. DID NUDGE UP TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER. WE
WERE ABLE TO HIT 80 TO 82 DEGREES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH A NW
TO N WIND. IT'S HARD TO IMAGE NOT RETURNING INTO THE 80S AGAIN
WITH A MORE FAVORABLE WIND TODAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
EASTERLIES ARE SLOWLY PUSHING WESTWARD ACROSS OUR WATERS THIS
MORNING AND EXPECTING ALL WATERS TO HAVE AN EAST IF NOT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE EASTERLIES HAVE COME IN,
BREEZES HAVE FRESHENED SLIGHTLY MORE THAN EXPECTED. THEREFORE,
HAVE NUDGED BREEZES TO GENTLE TO MODERATE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. BREEZES SLACKEN TO MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE, EXCEPT
REMAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE ACROSS THE STRAITS, FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE THIS HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
A SHALLOW AND NARROW STRATUS DECK AOA FL010 WILL STUBBORNLY HOLD
ON FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO UNTIL EASTERLY WINDS SUFFICIENTLY MOVE
IN AND HELP TO LIFT IT OFF THE EYW TERMINAL. AT THE MTH TERMINAL,
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE MOVED IN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
A QUIET NIGHT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. GOES TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) SHOWS PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 0.65
INCHES TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND 0.95 INCHES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ACROSS THE STRAITS. KBYX RADAR IS VOID
OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. GOES NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
SHOWS MOSTLY SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE KEYS WITH A
SMALL LINE OF STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL STRAITS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE KEYS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE LOWER KEYS TO THE LOWER
70S IN THE UPPER KEYS. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS, THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
RESEMBLES A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN WITH ONE TROUGH OVER THE
WEST COAST, MAINLY RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND TROUGHING
AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY THIS MORNING. MARINE
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE
LOWER KEYS ARE OBSERVING 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE UPPER KEYS.
FORECAST
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE KEYS. THE
HIGH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST SETTING UP SHOP ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. BREEZES WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHEAST TO EAST
THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFF THE COAST. SINCE THE HIGH ISN'T
EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE KEYS CAN
EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST BREEZES FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE KEYS LEADING TO NIL RAIN CHANCES. THIS WON'T BODE WELL FOR THE
ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS FLORIDA. UNFORTUNATELY, WE DON'T SEE ANY
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL START
BELOW AVERAGE THIS MORNING BUT WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH POTENTIALLY
A FEW MID 80 DEGREE READINGS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE AS
WE HEAD TOWARDS LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF A POTENTIALLY "BRING IT" COLD FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW, THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS A
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES, DIP IN HUMIDITY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, AND A BREEZY PERIOD ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY. THE MAGNITUDE AND INTENSITY OF THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 68 80 72 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 81 70 81 72 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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