890
FXUS62 KKEY 172002 CCA
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
152 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- BREEZES WILL BECOME MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. BREEZES REMAIN GENTLE TO
MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS MID WEEK.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY OVERTAKE THE COASTAL WATERS
SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE THE GULFSIDE, WESTERNMOST HAWK
CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA, REMAIN NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WILL CLOCK AROUND TO THE EAST TOWARDS SUNSET. A HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF THE GEORGIA & CAROLINA COASTS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FURTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
INITIALLY SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN AS THE HIGH SETTLES JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS, BREEZES WILL PEAK AND LULL FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THEREAFTER, CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THAT A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY WITH FRESHENING
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES IN ITS WAKE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE FINALLY RETURNED FOR THE EYW TERMINAL AS LOW
STRATUS HAS LIFTED NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT EYW BUT WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE E AND EVENTUALLY
SE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AT MTH EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT BECOMING E TO SE TOWARDS
DAWN WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
A QUIET NIGHT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. GOES TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) SHOWS PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 0.65
INCHES TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND 0.95 INCHES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ACROSS THE STRAITS. KBYX RADAR IS VOID
OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. GOES NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
SHOWS MOSTLY SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE KEYS WITH A
SMALL LINE OF STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL STRAITS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE KEYS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE LOWER KEYS TO THE LOWER
70S IN THE UPPER KEYS. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS, THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
RESEMBLES A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN WITH ONE TROUGH OVER THE
WEST COAST, MAINLY RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND TROUGHING
AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY THIS MORNING. MARINE
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE
LOWER KEYS ARE OBSERVING 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE UPPER KEYS.
FORECAST
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE KEYS. THE
HIGH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST SETTING UP SHOP ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. BREEZES WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHEAST TO EAST
THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFF THE COAST. SINCE THE HIGH ISN'T
EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE KEYS CAN
EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST BREEZES FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE KEYS LEADING TO NIL RAIN CHANCES. THIS WON'T BODE WELL FOR THE
ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS FLORIDA. UNFORTUNATELY, WE DON'T SEE ANY
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL START
BELOW AVERAGE THIS MORNING BUT WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH POTENTIALLY
A FEW MID 80 DEGREE READINGS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE AS
WE HEAD TOWARDS LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF A POTENTIALLY "BRING IT" COLD FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW, THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS A
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES, DIP IN HUMIDITY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, AND A BREEZY PERIOD ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY. THE MAGNITUDE AND INTENSITY OF THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 68 81 69 81 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 70 81 70 82 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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