258
FXUS62 KKEY 180934
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
434 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL REMAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
THIS MORNING, SLACKENING TO LIGHT TO GENTLE THEREAFTER.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. GOES
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOW ESTIMATED PWAT VALUES
OF 0.7 TO 0.9 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. OUR NEIGHBORING RADAR
(KAMX) IS VOID OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE KEYS AS A RESULT.
GOES NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN WHERE SOME LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN
CONGREGATING ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS, RIDGING IS DOMINATING THE
GULF AND MUCH OF FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE OBSERVING MAINLY EAST BREEZES OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS A RESULT.
FORECAST
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN DRIFT OR MEANDER AS IT
SETTLES OVER THE ATLANTIC SOMEWHERE NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THIS WILL CONTINUE GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES
THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS MORNING. BREEZES WILL SLACKEN
THIS AFTERNOON TO LIGHT TO GENTLE, BECOMING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. DRY
AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE KEYS RESULTING IN NIL TO
NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE GULF AND
FLORIDA TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME MID 80 DEGREE READINGS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE KEYS ARE
IN FOR A TASTE OF EARLY SUMMER THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO RISE SLOWLY OVER THE COMING DAYS
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO BE QUITE MILD IN THE LOWER 70S, POTENTIALLY MID 70S
IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE CAVEAT WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN WINDS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE
AREA LEAVING THE KEYS IN A COL REGION BETWEEN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME FOG AS WE WILL BE
PUMPING UP THE DEW POINTS OVER THE COOL WATERS.
THEN THE NEXT "BRING IT" COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BLAST
OF COOLER WEATHER. THIS WILL GIVE FLORIDA A TASTE OF WINTER YET
AGAIN. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE TIMING TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING FOR PASSAGE. THE RESULT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING, TUMBLING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY, AND SLIGHT
CHANCES OF RAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
PROMOTE GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES THIS MORNING.
THEREAFTER, BREEZES WILL GENERALLY PEAK AND LULL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WHILE THIS HIGH SLOWLY SETTLES EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. A
POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT MAY SWEEP THROUGH THE KEYS STARTING
SUNDAY EVENING WITH FRESHENING NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH THE
EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 12 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1996, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 45F WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 72 81 73 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 81 72 82 72 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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