599
FXUS62 KKEY 190930
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
430 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- MAINLY SOUTHEAST LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
PRESS THROUGH THE KEYS SOMETIME SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT RESULTING
IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, DROP IN HUMIDITY, AND A PERIOD OF
WINDY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS MAINLY MEAN LAYER RIDGING ACROSS THE KEYS
WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. GOES 19
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS ESTIMATED PWAT
VALUES OF 0.85 INCHES TO 1 INCH WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. THIS IS STILL INDICATIVE OF A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. KBYX RADAR IS NOT DETECTING
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. GOES 19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
SHOWS SOME STRATOCUMULUS STREAMING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
KEYS MAKING WAY FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, THOUGH, BIG PINE KEY HAS
DIPPED TO 64 DEGREES IN THE LAST HOUR DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S, THOUGH, BIG
PINE KEY IS CURRENTLY RECORDING A DEW POINT OF 62 DEGREES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD
INTO THE KEYS AND INTO THE GULF. MARINE OBSERVATIONS PLATFORMS
AROUND THE KEYS ARE RECORDING MAINLY SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF NEAR 10
KNOTS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN WITH 5 TO 10 KNOTS NORTH OF THE CHAIN.
FORECAST
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC IS CENTERED
TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS HIGH WILL SETTLE AND REMAIN
MOSTLY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA KEYS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST PERIODS. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE KEYS RESULTING IN NIL TO NEAR NIL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE KEYS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME MID 80 DEGREE READINGS ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE KEYS ARE IN FOR A TASTE OF EARLY SUMMER
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT FEW FORECAST PERIODS NEAR 70 DEGREES,
THOUGH, THESE MAY TICK UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE QUITE MILD IN THE LOWER
70S, POTENTIALLY MID 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE CAVEAT WILL BE
OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA LEAVING THE KEYS IN A COL
REGION BETWEEN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR INTERIOR AND MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS. THIS COULD BE A SIMILAR
REGIME TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING THIS MORNING WHERE BIG PINE
KEY DIPPED INTO THE MID 60S. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
FOG AS WE WILL BE PUMPING UP THE DEW POINTS OVER THE COOL WATERS.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON ANOTHER "BRING IT" COLD FRONT
FOR SOMETIME SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER BLAST
OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE KEYS GIVING FLORIDA A TASTE OF
WINTER YET AGAIN. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS, TUMBLING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY, AND SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST FROM EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS INITIALLY BEFORE WINDS VEER
AROUND THE COMPASS BECOMING EASTERLY BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE KEYS YET AGAIN LEADING TO
NIL RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL MEANDER IN PLACE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WILL STRETCH WEST THROUGH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AS THE KEYS REMAIN IN A COL REGION. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A
STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE KEYS STARTING SUNDAY
EVENING WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES
ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY.
NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY IN 1900, THE DAILY RECORD
COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 55F WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
DATA FOR KEY WEST DATES BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 73 81 73 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 81 73 83 73 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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