370
FXUS62 KKEY 191739
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1239 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- MAINLY SOUTHEAST LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
PRESS THROUGH THE KEYS SOMETIME SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT RESULTING
IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, DROP IN HUMIDITY, AND A PERIOD OF
WINDY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH NIL RAIN CHANCES AND ONLY OCCASIONAL FEW TO
SCT CLOUDS BASED AT AROUND 050. NEAR- SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL MEANDER IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WILL STRETCH WEST
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE KEYS REMAIN IN REGION OF
NEBULOUS PRESSURE GRADIENT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A STRONG
COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING
SUNDAY EVENING, WITH STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES ANTICIPATED
IN ITS WAKE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC IS CENTERED
TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS HIGH WILL SETTLE AND REMAIN
MOSTLY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA KEYS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST PERIODS. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE KEYS RESULTING IN NIL TO NEAR NIL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE KEYS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME MID 80 DEGREE READINGS ALSO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE KEYS ARE IN FOR A TASTE OF EARLY SUMMER THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY FOR THE NEXT FEW FORECAST PERIODS NEAR 70 DEGREES, THOUGH,
THESE MAY TICK UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE QUITE MILD IN THE LOWER 70S,
POTENTIALLY MID 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE CAVEAT WILL BE OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA LEAVING THE KEYS IN A COL REGION BETWEEN
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
INTERIOR AND MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS. THIS COULD BE A SIMILAR
REGIME TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING THIS MORNING WHERE BIG PINE
KEY DIPPED INTO THE MID 60S. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
FOG AS WE WILL BE PUMPING UP THE DEW POINTS OVER THE COOL WATERS.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON ANOTHER "BRING IT" COLD FRONT
FOR SOMETIME SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER BLAST
OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE KEYS GIVING FLORIDA A TASTE OF
WINTER YET AGAIN. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS, TUMBLING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY, AND SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST FROM EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS INITIALLY BEFORE WINDS VEER
AROUND THE COMPASS BECOMING EASTERLY BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE KEYS YET AGAIN LEADING TO
NIL RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 73 81 73 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 81 73 83 73 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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