955
FXUS62 KKEY 200934
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
434 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- MAINLY SOUTHEAST LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
PRESS THROUGH THE KEYS SOMETIME SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT RESULTING
IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, DROP IN HUMIDITY, AND A PERIOD OF
WINDY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS A DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
EXTENDS WESTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF. MARINE
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE OBSERVING
MAINLY SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS NORTH OF THE CHAIN WITH
NEAR 10 KNOTS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN. GOES 19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER (TPW) SHOWS ESTIMATED PWAT VALUES OF 0.75 INCHES TO 1 INCH
THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. KBYX RADAR IS NOT DETECTING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. GOES 19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE KEYS WITH A FEW CLOUD OVER THE STRAITS.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S,
THOUGH, BIG PINE KEY IS THE COOL SPOT DUE TO SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE LATEST OBSERVED TEMPERATURE FOR BIG PINE WAS 67
DEGREES BETWEEN 2-3 AM. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
FORECAST
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINS
CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MEANDER TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES THROUGHOUT
THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR THE NEXT FEW FORECAST PERIODS. DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE KEYS RESULTING IN NIL TO NEAR NIL
RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE KEYS INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TODAY AND SATURDAY. SOME MID 80 DEGREE READINGS ALSO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. EARLY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE KEYS
THROUGH SATURDAY. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE
NEXT FEW FORECAST PERIODS NEAR 70 DEGREES, THOUGH, THESE MAY TICK
UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO BE QUITE MILD IN THE LOWER 70S, POTENTIALLY MID 70S
IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE CAVEAT WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN THE
GRADIENT BECOMES NEBULOUS ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR INTERIOR AND MORE
SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME FOG AS
WE WILL BE PUMPING UP THE DEW POINTS OVER THE COOL WATERS.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON ANOTHER "BRING IT" COLD FRONT
FOR SOMETIME SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER BLAST
OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE KEYS GIVING FLORIDA A TASTE OF
WINTER YET AGAIN. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS,
TUMBLING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY, AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WHILE FRESHENING. BREEZES WILL
DRAMATICALLY INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WHILE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. EXPECT FRESH TO
STRONG, POTENTIALLY NEAR GALE BREEZES, BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PEAK BREEZES
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME
SLACKENING DURING THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE MONDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WE DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT, THOUGH, SLIGHT CHANCES (10%) REMAIN. THIS
WON'T BODE WELL FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS FLORIDA CURRENTLY.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 55 TO 60
DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE COLDEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE UPPER KEYS WITH LOWER 50S FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE QUITE CHILLY
WITH LOWS 50 TO 55.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST FROM EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS INITIALLY BEFORE WINDS VEER
AROUND THE COMPASS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE KEYS YET AGAIN
LEADING TO NIL RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY REACHING 80
DEGREES BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL MEANDER IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WILL STRETCH WEST
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE KEYS REMAIN IN REGION OF
NEBULOUS PRESSURE GRADIENT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR
A STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING, WITH STRONG, POTENTIALLY NEAR GALE,
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES ANTICIPATED IN ITS WAKE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY.
NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY IN 2015, THE DAILY RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 49F WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE DATA
FOR KEY WEST DATES BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 73 82 70 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 81 73 82 70 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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