915
FXUS62 KKEY 201600
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1100 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- MAINLY SOUTHEAST LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
PRESS THROUGH THE KEYS SOMETIME SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT RESULTING
IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, DROP IN HUMIDITY, AND A PERIOD OF
WINDY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1043 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY AND GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ANALYSIS DEPICTS
RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST, WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS
SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE, A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SOUTHWEST,
PIVOTING ALONG A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY
SAMPLED A 500 MB HEIGHT OF AROUND 588 DM, MUCH HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE EXPANDED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN IS
CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AT THE LATE FRIDAY MORNING HOUR, WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
APPROACHING 80F AT MANY ISLAND COMMUNITIES. ALSO CONSISTENT WITH
THE RIDGE IS NEGLIGIBLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE KEYS AND THE
ADJACENT NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY REMAINS VERY WARM, DRY, AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. NO
CHANGES PROPOSED TO THE INHERITED OVERNIGHT FULL FORECAST PACKAGE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINS
CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MEANDER TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES THROUGHOUT
THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR THE NEXT FEW FORECAST PERIODS. DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE KEYS RESULTING IN NIL TO NEAR NIL
RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE KEYS INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TODAY AND SATURDAY. SOME MID 80 DEGREE READINGS ALSO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. EARLY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE KEYS
THROUGH SATURDAY. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE
NEXT FEW FORECAST PERIODS NEAR 70 DEGREES, THOUGH, THESE MAY TICK
UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO BE QUITE MILD IN THE LOWER 70S, POTENTIALLY MID 70S
IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE CAVEAT WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN THE
GRADIENT BECOMES NEBULOUS ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR INTERIOR AND MORE
SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME FOG AS WE
WILL BE PUMPING UP THE DEW POINTS OVER THE COOL WATERS.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON ANOTHER "BRING IT" COLD FRONT
FOR SOMETIME SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER BLAST
OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE KEYS GIVING FLORIDA A TASTE OF
WINTER YET AGAIN. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS,
TUMBLING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY, AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WHILE FRESHENING. BREEZES WILL
DRAMATICALLY INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WHILE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. EXPECT FRESH TO
STRONG, POTENTIALLY NEAR GALE BREEZES, BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PEAK BREEZES
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME
SLACKENING DURING THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE MONDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WE DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT, THOUGH, SLIGHT CHANCES (10%) REMAIN. THIS
WON'T BODE WELL FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS FLORIDA CURRENTLY.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 55 TO 60
DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE COLDEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE UPPER KEYS WITH LOWER 50S FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE QUITE CHILLY
WITH LOWS 50 TO 55.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST FROM EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS INITIALLY BEFORE WINDS VEER
AROUND THE COMPASS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE KEYS YET AGAIN
LEADING TO NIL RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY REACHING 80
DEGREES BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1043 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL MEANDER IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WILL STRETCH WEST THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS THE KEYS REMAIN IN REGION OF NEBULOUS PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF MARINE FOG EARLY SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE COOLER GULFSIDE AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING, WITH
STRONG, POTENTIALLY NEAR GALE, NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES
ANTICIPATED IN ITS WAKE.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1043 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NIL, WITH ONLY FEW TO
SCT CLOUD BOUTS BASED AT AROUND 050-070. NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 73 82 70 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 81 73 82 70 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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