592
FXUS62 KKEY 211032
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
532 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN-FREE AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT
TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRESS THROUGH THE KEYS SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES, A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN
HUMIDITY, AND A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 531 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS A DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE WAS LOCATED NEAR
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
EXTENDS WESTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. MARINE
OBSERVATIONS PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE OBSERVING
MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. GOES 19 TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS ESTIMATED PWAT VALUES OF
0.65 INCHES TO 0.85 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. THIS IS BETWEEN
THE 10TH AND 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. KBYX RADAR IS NOT
DETECTING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. GOES 19 NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS SHOWS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE KEYS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AND
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ALSO, EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT, BIG PINE KEY DID DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BEFORE
REBOUNDING TO THE LOWER 70S THIS PAST HOUR. SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING WAS ABLE TO OCCUR AGAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME WIND HELPED
TO RAISE THE TEMPERATURE.
FORECAST
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINS
CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FURTHER
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC THIS MORNING LOOSENING IT
GRIP ACROSS THE KEYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES FOR THIS MORNING. THEN, A NEBULOUS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ENSUE RESULTING IN SLACKENING BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING MAINLY VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT, RADIATIONAL COOLING IS A POSSIBILITY. THEREFORE, THE
LOWS WERE LOWERED A BIT TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 60S. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RADIATE EFFECTIVELY DOWN TO THE DEW POINT WHICH
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S. IN ADDITION, SOME PATCHY FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE GULF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM IN THE LOWER
80S WITH SOME MID 80S POSSIBLE. ALSO, CURRENT THINKING IS FOR
SUNDAY TO STILL GET QUITE WARM ONE MORE TIME BEFORE THE FRONT
APPROACHES LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY REACHING THE LOWER
80S. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE KEYS RESULTING IN
NIL TO NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
A "BRING IT" COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER BLAST OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO
THE KEYS GIVING FLORIDA A TASTE OF WINTER YET AGAIN. THE RESULT
WILL BE A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS, TUMBLING TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY, AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WHILE
FRESHENING. BREEZES WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG, POTENTIALLY NEAR GALE BREEZES,
BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE PEAK BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME SLACKENING DURING THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SURGE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT, THOUGH, SLIGHT
CHANCES (20%) REMAIN. THIS WON'T BODE WELL FOR THE ONGOING
DROUGHT ACROSS FLORIDA CURRENTLY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S (UPPER 40S FOR
THE UPPER KEYS) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE COLDEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR THE UPPER KEYS AND NEAR
50 FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE
QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS 50 TO 55.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST FROM EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS INITIALLY BEFORE WINDS VEER
AROUND THE COMPASS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE KEYS YET AGAIN
LEADING TO NIL RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 531 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZES SLACKEN TO MAINLY LIGHT BREEZES THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES REMAINS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO A NEBULOUS PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING, WITH STRONG,
POTENTIALLY NEAR GALE, NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES ANTICIPATED IN
ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST,
THEN EVENTUALLY TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NEAR SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AT NEAR 10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY IN 1958, THE DAILY RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 51F WAS LAST RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
DATA FOR KEY WEST DATES BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 69 79 58 / 0 0 20 10
MARATHON 81 69 80 55 / 0 0 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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