949
FXUS62 KKEY 211611
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1111 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN-FREE AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT
TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRESS THROUGH THE KEYS SUNDAY NIGHT,
LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES, A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN HUMIDITY,
AND A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
UPPER-LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL AND VORTICITY ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST, WITH A STRONG RIDGE THAT WAS
ONCE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NOW SLOWLY SLIDING
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING
AT KEY SAMPLED A THERMODYNAMICALLY-STABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERE, WITH
SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR THROUGHOUT. GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
IS STRUGGLING TO DETECT ANY CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE KEYS AND THE
ADJACENT NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY APPROACHING NEAR 80F ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS SUNNY, DRY, WARM, AND MUGGY, AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGES PROPOSED.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 531 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS A DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE WAS LOCATED NEAR
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
EXTENDS WESTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. MARINE
OBSERVATIONS PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE OBSERVING
MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. GOES 19 TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS ESTIMATED PWAT VALUES OF
0.65 INCHES TO 0.85 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. THIS IS BETWEEN
THE 10TH AND 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. KBYX RADAR IS NOT
DETECTING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. GOES 19 NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS SHOWS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE KEYS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AND
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ALSO, EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT, BIG PINE KEY DID DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BEFORE
REBOUNDING TO THE LOWER 70S THIS PAST HOUR. SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING WAS ABLE TO OCCUR AGAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME WIND HELPED
TO RAISE THE TEMPERATURE.
FORECAST
A "BRING IT" COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER BLAST OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO
THE KEYS GIVING FLORIDA A TASTE OF WINTER YET AGAIN. THE RESULT
WILL BE A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS, TUMBLING TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY, AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WHILE
FRESHENING. BREEZES WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG, POTENTIALLY NEAR GALE BREEZES,
BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE PEAK BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME SLACKENING DURING THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SURGE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT, THOUGH, SLIGHT
CHANCES (20%) REMAIN. THIS WON'T BODE WELL FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT
ACROSS FLORIDA CURRENTLY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S (UPPER 40S FOR THE UPPER
KEYS) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE COLDEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR THE UPPER KEYS AND NEAR 50 FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE QUITE CHILLY
WITH LOWS 50 TO 55.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST FROM EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS INITIALLY BEFORE WINDS VEER
AROUND THE COMPASS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE KEYS YET AGAIN
LEADING TO NIL RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
THE
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZES SLACKEN TO MAINLY LIGHT BREEZES THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES REMAINS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO A NEBULOUS PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE COOLER WATERS OF THE SOUTHEAST GULF. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING, WITH STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES,
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL NEAR-GALE GUSTS, ANTICIPATED IN ITS WAKE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST,
THEN EVENTUALLY TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THAT
SAID, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF EYW. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE,
WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL BE REEVALUATED WITH THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. NEAR-SURFACE WINDS
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL BE COME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 69 79 58 / 0 0 20 10
MARATHON 81 69 80 55 / 0 0 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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