322
FXUS62 KKEY 211752
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1252 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN-FREE AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT
TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRESS THROUGH THE KEYS SUNDAY NIGHT,
LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES, A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN HUMIDITY,
AND A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHORTLY AFTER THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THEN
WILL REMAIN NEAR-NIL. NEAR- SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT
6 TO 8 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
RADIATIONAL AND MARINE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY NEAR EYW AFTER 09Z. HAVE INCLUDED A BOUT OF
LOW CIGS FOR NOW IN THE TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
THE
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZES SLACKEN TO MAINLY LIGHT BREEZES THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES REMAINS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO A NEBULOUS PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE COOLER WATERS OF THE SOUTHEAST GULF. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING, WITH STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES,
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL NEAR-GALE GUSTS, ANTICIPATED IN ITS WAKE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST,
THEN EVENTUALLY TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 531 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
A "BRING IT" COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER BLAST OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO
THE KEYS GIVING FLORIDA A TASTE OF WINTER YET AGAIN. THE RESULT
WILL BE A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS, TUMBLING TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY, AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WHILE
FRESHENING. BREEZES WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG, POTENTIALLY NEAR GALE BREEZES,
BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE PEAK BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME SLACKENING DURING THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SURGE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT, THOUGH, SLIGHT
CHANCES (20%) REMAIN. THIS WON'T BODE WELL FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT
ACROSS FLORIDA CURRENTLY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S (UPPER 40S FOR THE UPPER
KEYS) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE COLDEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR THE UPPER KEYS AND NEAR 50 FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE QUITE CHILLY
WITH LOWS 50 TO 55.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST FROM EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS INITIALLY BEFORE WINDS VEER
AROUND THE COMPASS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE KEYS YET AGAIN
LEADING TO NIL RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 69 79 58 / 0 0 20 10
MARATHON 81 69 80 55 / 0 0 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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