293
FXUS62 KKEY 220228
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
928 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
HOURS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRESS THROUGH THE KEYS SUNDAY NIGHT,
LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES, A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN HUMIDITY,
AND A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 915 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
ANOTHER COMFORTABLE AND CALM EVENING IS UNFOLDING ALONG THE
FLORIDA KEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE SITTING IN THE MID 70S WITH
ACCOMPANYING DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. BREEZES HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, BUT WE HAVEN'T BEEN PLAGUED BY STUFFY AIR SINCE OUR DEW
POINTS ARE STILL RELATIVELY DRY COMPARED TO OTHER TIMES OF THE
YEAR. IF IT WAS CURRENTLY JULY, AND WE HAD THESE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BREEZES, YOU WOULD BE ABLE TO WEAR THE AIR. OUR KBYX
RADAR IS VOID OF ANY METEOROLOGICAL RETURNS DUE TO THE PREVAILING
HIGHER PRESSURE COUPLED WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
VERTICAL PROFILE. VARIOUS GOES-19 CHANNELS SHOW POCKETS OF SOME
CLOUD COVER AT DIFFERENT HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT NOTHING
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO BLOCK OUT THE STARS JUST YET. BASED ON THE
00Z KKEY SOUNDING, THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY AROUND 5K AND 23K FEET,
GIVE OR TAKE A FEW FEET. OTHERWISE, THE AIR IS JUST TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT MEANINGFUL CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME.
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CLOSE TO, AND INCLUDING, THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
KEYS. LOW VISIBILITIES ARE NOTATED ON SOME ISOLATED OBSERVATIONS
ON THE PENINSULA, AND GOES-19 NIGHT FOG CHANNEL IS DETECTING
EITHER FOG OR VERY LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE STATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 915 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO A
NEBULOUS PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY
EVENING WITH STRONG, POTENTIALLY NEAR GALE, NORTHWEST TO NORTH
BREEZES ANTICIPATED IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN AND
VEER TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 915 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
THERE IS A MODEST CHANCE, APPROXIMATELY 20 TO 30 PERCENT, OF FOG
DEVELOPING NEAR BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
TAF PERIOD. IF LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS PUSH THE FOG OVER THE ISLAND
CHAIN, CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TO IFR AND LIFR
THRESHOLDS. OPTING TO KEEP A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z
AND 15Z DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO TIMING, BUT AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED ONCE FOG ACTUALLY DEVELOPS. A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BRING NORTHERLY
CROSSWINDS OF NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 69 79 58 62 / 0 40 20 0
MARATHON 69 80 55 62 / 0 30 20 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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