344
FXUS62 KKEY 220931
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
431 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRESS THROUGH THE KEYS TONIGHT,
LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES, A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN HUMIDITY,
AND A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS.
- CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE UPPER KEYS. ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER KEYS.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS A DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC WITH THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE CONTINUES
TO RETREAT INTO THE ATLANTIC LEAVING THE KEYS IN NEBULOUS FLOW
THIS MORNING. A COMPLEX PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA WITH A TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA.
MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
OBSERVING MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES AS A RESULT. GOES 19
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
SLIGHT MOISTENING ACROSS THE KEYS WITH ESTIMATED PWAT VALUES
SURROUNDING 1 INCH. THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. KBYX RADAR
IS NOT DETECTING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. GOES 19
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS DENSE FOG CURRENTLY OVER THE
MAINLAND, THOUGH, THIS HAS REMAINED OUTSIDE OF THE KEYS COVERAGE
AREA FOR NOW. THE KEYS REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
STRATOCUMULUS TRAVERSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AND DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
FORECAST
A NEBULOUS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE KEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES CONTINUING
FOR THE NEXT FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SE GULF. ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT ONCE THE SUN
COMES UP THIS MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL BE QUITE
WARM TODAY NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH LOWER 80S STILL POSSIBLE. DRY AIR
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE KEYS RESULTING IN NIL TO NEAR
NIL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH LATE MORNING.
A "BRING IT" COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WHICH IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO MEXICO. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING ANOTHER BLAST OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE KEYS
GIVING FLORIDA A TASTE OF WINTER YET AGAIN. THE RESULT WILL BE A
PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS, TUMBLING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY,
AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WHILE FRESHENING.
BREEZES WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHILE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. EXPECT
FRESH TO STRONG, POTENTIALLY NEAR GALE BREEZES, BEGINNING THIS
EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THE PEAK
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME
SLACKENING DURING THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE MONDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREFORE, CHANCES OF RAIN (30%) ARE NOW IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES (20%)
FOR THE UPPER KEYS. RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO ALL THAT
MUCH WITH ONLY A FEW TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
ANTICIPATED. WE EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE KEYS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN IS BETWEEN 4PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM THIS
EVENING. THIS WON'T BODE WELL FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS
FLORIDA CURRENTLY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S (UPPER 40S FOR THE UPPER KEYS) WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE COLDEST
NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S FOR THE UPPER KEYS AND NEAR 50 FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER KEYS. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS 50
TO 55. WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER KEYS MONDAY NIGHT MAY TOUCH 35
DEGREES FOR A COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER, THIS IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A COLD
WEATHER PRODUCT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST FROM EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS INITIALLY BEFORE WINDS VEER
AROUND THE COMPASS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE KEYS YET AGAIN LEADING
TO NIL RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE
LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN BY LATE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ARE HEADLINED
FOR FLORIDA BAY, THE BAY/GULFSIDE WATERS, HAWK CHANNEL, AND THE
EASTERN STRAITS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR
INCREASING WINDS LATE TODAY IS HEADLINED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SURROUNDING THE LOWER KEYS AS WELL AS FLORIDA BAY. IN ADDITION,
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR INCREASING WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON IS HEADLINED FOR THE SE GULF AND THE WESTERNMOST FLORIDA
STRAITS AS WELL AS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED
LATE TODAY. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A NEBULOUS PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND SWEEP THROUGH THE
KEYS COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING THIS EVENING WITH STRONG,
POTENTIALLY NEAR GALE, NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES ANTICIPATED IN
ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST,
THEN EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
A CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
THAT COULD RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. ONCE
THE SUN COMES UP, THIS POTENTIAL FOG WILL BURN OFF AND RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND CHAIN, WITH SOME POSSIBLE
LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED AND A SHARP WIND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF NEAR 25 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY IN 2019, THE DAILY RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 79F WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS ALSO
THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE READING FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR
KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE DATE FOR KEY WEST DATES BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 58 63 52 / 30 20 0 0
MARATHON 80 55 62 49 / 30 20 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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