822
FXUS62 KKEY 221619
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1119 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRESS THROUGH THE KEYS TONIGHT,
LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES, A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN HUMIDITY,
AND A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS.
- CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE UPPER KEYS. ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER KEYS.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
ANY LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE KEYS AND THE ADJACENT NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
DISSIPATED QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A POTENT
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF, EXTENDING FROM A CYCLONE
UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION, COUPLED WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS, HAS
SUPPORTED QUICKLY RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS,
INCHING TO NEAR 80F.
THE STORY OF THE DAY (AND REALLY FOR THE WEEK) IS THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. A BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
BUT DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRENGTHENING LOW SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT
MANY COMMUNITIES. NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST REQUIRED.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
A NEBULOUS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE KEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES CONTINUING
FOR THE NEXT FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SE GULF. ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT ONCE THE SUN
COMES UP THIS MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL BE QUITE
WARM TODAY NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH LOWER 80S STILL POSSIBLE. DRY AIR
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE KEYS RESULTING IN NIL TO NEAR
NIL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH LATE MORNING.
A "BRING IT" COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WHICH IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO MEXICO. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING ANOTHER BLAST OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE KEYS
GIVING FLORIDA A TASTE OF WINTER YET AGAIN. THE RESULT WILL BE A
PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS, TUMBLING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY,
AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WHILE FRESHENING.
BREEZES WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHILE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. EXPECT
FRESH TO STRONG, POTENTIALLY NEAR GALE BREEZES, BEGINNING THIS
EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THE PEAK
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME
SLACKENING DURING THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE MONDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREFORE, CHANCES OF RAIN (30%) ARE NOW IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES (20%)
FOR THE UPPER KEYS. RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO ALL THAT
MUCH WITH ONLY A FEW TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
ANTICIPATED. WE EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE KEYS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN IS BETWEEN 4PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM THIS
EVENING. THIS WON'T BODE WELL FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS
FLORIDA CURRENTLY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S (UPPER 40S FOR THE UPPER KEYS) WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE COLDEST
NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S FOR THE UPPER KEYS AND NEAR 50 FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER KEYS. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS 50
TO 55. WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER KEYS MONDAY NIGHT MAY TOUCH 35
DEGREES FOR A COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER, THIS IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A COLD
WEATHER PRODUCT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST FROM EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS INITIALLY BEFORE WINDS VEER
AROUND THE COMPASS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE KEYS YET AGAIN LEADING
TO NIL RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE
LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN BY LATE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND FRESHEN IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SLACKEN AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST,THEN EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED BY A BOUT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A QUICK WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. VCSH IS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME, WITH POSSIBLE TEMPOS REQUIRED DEPENDING ON SHOWER
EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL
GUST TO NEAR 30 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET, WITH CROSS-WIND COMPONENTS
NEAR 25 KNOTS, POSING A CHALLENGE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 58 63 52 / 30 20 0 0
MARATHON 80 55 62 49 / 30 20 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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