931
FXUS62 KKEY 230350
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1050 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE KEYS THIS EVENING
WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES, A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN
HUMIDITY, AND A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS.
- RAIN CHANCES DROP TO NEAR NIL FOLLOWING THE RECENT PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT AS DRY, COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED AROUND THE KEYS FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA.
EARLIER THIS EVENING, KBYX RADAR DETECTED A MODESTLY DEVELOPED
PREFRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS APPROACHING OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
GULF. AS THIS LINE PASSED INTO OUR WATERS, IT STARTED TO DECAY
BEFORE EVENTUALLY LAUNCHING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT
TOWARDS THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS BOUNDARY ACTED AS THE FORWARD EDGE
OF THE FRONT WHERE MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZES BECAME STRONG
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY BREEZES IN ITS WAKE. OFFSHORE OBSERVATIONS
QUICKLY JUMPED UP TO GUSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30 KNOT RANGE WITH
THE INITIAL PUSH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN
DOWN TO THE MID TO UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE WITH SUSTAINED VALUES IN
THE LOWER 20 KNOTS. MEANWHILE, THE SHOWERS THAT EJECTED THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY QUIETLY COLLAPSED BEFORE MAKING IT TO LAND WITH
MRMS 6-HOUR QPE SHOWING NO RAINFALL ESTIMATED OVER THE ISLAND
CHAIN.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 70 WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S. WITH THESE STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY
NEAR GALE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES, LOWS WILL LEAN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S (WITH NEAR 50S OVER THE UPPER KEYS) EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. BUT IN USUAL FLORIDA KEYS FASHION, OUR COOLEST LOWS ARE
SET FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY NEAR 50 AND IN
THE UPPER 40S FOR THE UPPER KEYS. WHILE BREEZES WILL PEAK
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THEY WILL SLACKEN SLIGHTLY TOMORROW KEEPING THE
PIPELINE OPEN FOR THE DRY, COLD AIR MASS ADVECTING IN FROM THE
NORTH. NEAR NIL POPS WILL OF COURSE CONTINUE IN THIS POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT AS WE GET AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF "WINTER" CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER
THIS EVENING, NEAR GALE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN AND VEER
TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
SOME EARLY PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR FOLLOWING THIS EVENING'S FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEAR SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT CROSSWIND
CONCERNS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 58 63 52 62 / 20 0 0 0
MARATHON 55 62 49 60 / 20 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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