083
FXUS62 KKEY 230949
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
449 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER, DRIER, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ZERO THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTED THROUGH THE KEYS LATE YESTERDAY. THE
FRONT BROUGHT WITH IT STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BROADLY TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. DEW POINTS
PLUNGED INTO THE 40S. LAST EVENINGS SOUNDING CAME IN BEFORE THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY TOOK OFF. LOOKING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, VERY STABLE POST COLD FRONT CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. SKIES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS EVIDENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
A MID LATITUDE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIVE NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY WHILE A STRONG HIGH POURS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN ONLY SLIGHTLY TODAY. THIS
ALONG WITH DAY TIME HEATING SHOULD HELP TO SLIGHTLY DIMINISH
BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS. EXPECT A MORE DRAMATIC DROP ACROSS THE
UPPER KEYS, WHICH IS IN THE DIRECT LEE OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE MID 60S, WHILE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 40S.
WHILE THE ATLANTIC LOW WILL BE FAR AWAY BY TONIGHT, THE
CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ROBUST NORTHERLY BREEZES. IN ADDITION,
A WELL DEVELOPED LAND BREEZE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY NUDGE BREEZES
UPWARDS SLIGHTLY AND HELP TO FLUSH EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE KEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR 50 DEGREES.
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS MAY SEE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MID
30S. STABLE, RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
HEADING THROUGH MID WEEK, FAIRLY RAPID MODERATION IS EXPECTED.
THE EARLIER MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY MARCH EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA THEN ELONGATE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
BREEZES WILL RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY, THEN GRADUALLY CLOCK
NORTHEAST THEN EASTERLY. HOW QUICKLY WINDS VEER WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW COOL THE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE AND THE SYNOPTIC
PRESSURE GRADIENT. BAY WATERS WILL LIKELY COOL TO NEAR 60 BY
TUESDAY, BUT WARM QUITE A BIT OVER THE FOLLOWING COUPLE OF DAYS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE AND TRY TO SHIFT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC. AFTER ANOTHER COOL WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING, EXPECT A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE BACK
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED MID LATITUDE
TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SETTING UP A MOIST
CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THIS
POINT, RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER, THE BEST CONFLUENCE IS
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE KEYS REMAIN RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE LOWER RIDGE AXIS. IN ADDITION, WHILE BOUTS OF
ORGANIZED VEERING ARE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THE WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY ARE SMALL, OFTEN CUT SHORT BY CUBAN INHIBITION. FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND A
DEEPENING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS DRIVING STRONG
NORTHERLY BREEZES ACROSS KEYS WATERS THIS MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS. BREEZES WILL RELAX
SLIGHTLY TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
REDUCTION OCCURRING IN THE DIRECT LEE OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL PICKUP AGAIN THIS EVENING DUE TO A STILL TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR DRIVING SOUTHWARD OFF OF THE
MAINLAND. WINDS WILL THEN FALL OFF A CLIFF HEADING INTO MID WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA
AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT BREEZES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTHEAST THEN EAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD, EVENTUALLY TRYING TO PUSH
SOUTH OF EAST. THE TRAILING WESTERN FLANK OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND CAUTIONS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER, THE RIDGE TO MOVE FULLY OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
RESULTING A COLLAPSING LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT BREEZES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD. SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLACKEN SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE ISLAND TERMINALS,
BUT PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUD SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY, IN 2019, THE DAILY RECORD WARM
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 80F WAS RECORDED IN MARATHON. THIS WAS ALSO THE
WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDED FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR KEY
WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1951.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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