970
FXUS62 KKEY 231544
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1044 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER, DRIER, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ZERO THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER
KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
THE KEYS ARE CERTAINLY FEELING THE AFTER EFFECTS OF YESTERDAY'S
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDY CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER KEYS MAY GET A VERY
BRIEF REPREIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS SLACKEN IN THE LEE OF THE
MAINLAND DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS
THE NORTHERLY FETCH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR NIGHTTIME DRAINAGE AND
WINDS WILL SURGE AGAIN TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS, WE HAVE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR
FILTERING DOWN. THE COMBINATION OF THESE DRY CONDITIONS, WINDS,
AND PRE-EXISTING DRY FUELS HAVE LED TO A RARE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE UPPER KEYS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BETWEEN
25 TO 30 PERCENT AND RECOVER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE, THIS
MORNING'S SOUNDING MEASURED A PWAT OF 0.25" WHICH WILL KEEP
EVERYTHING SHUTDOWN IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION. FOR THE UPPER KEYS
AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE KEYS, THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL
TRANSPORT SMOKE AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE EMERGING
NATIONAL FIRE, LOCATED NEAR BIG CYPRESS PRESERVE. IT'S TOO EARLY
TO KNOW WHAT IMPACTS FROM THE SMOKE RESIDENTS MAY HAVE AND WE WILL
UPDATE AS WE KNOW MORE. FOR NOW, RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CHECK BACK OFTEN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY NEAR-GALE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE WATERS IMMEDIATELY IN THE LEE OF
THE MAINLAND MAY SEE BREEZES SLACKEN BRIEFLY TO MODERATE TO FRESH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. BY TONIGHT
WE EXPECT WINDS TO SURGE OFF THE MAINLAND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLIES THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A
RESULT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, A NORTHWEST
TO NORTH FETCH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ON THE
MAINLAND TO PASS THROUGH THE NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN VEER TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. A CROSSWIND MAGNITUDE OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z TUESDAY(2/24).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH PRE-EXSITING DRY
FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
FOR THE UPPER KEYS, ESPECIALLY THE FORESTED AREAS IN AND NORTH OF
KEY LARGO. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT 25 TO
30 PERCENT. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 MPH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MAY BRIEFLY SLACKEN TO 10
TO 15 MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS
WILL INCREASE BACK TO 15 TO 20 MPH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
MEANWHILE, RH VALUES WILL BE RECOVERING TO WELL ABOVE 30 PERCENT
TOWARDS SUNSET AND THIS WILL DECREASE GREATLY THE FIRE WEATHER
RISK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTED THROUGH THE KEYS LATE YESTERDAY. THE
FRONT BROUGHT WITH IT STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BROADLY TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. DEW POINTS
PLUNGED INTO THE 40S. LAST EVENINGS SOUNDING CAME IN BEFORE THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY TOOK OFF. LOOKING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, VERY STABLE POST COLD FRONT CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. SKIES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS EVIDENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
A MID LATITUDE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIVE NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY WHILE A STRONG HIGH POURS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN ONLY SLIGHTLY TODAY. THIS
ALONG WITH DAY TIME HEATING SHOULD HELP TO SLIGHTLY DIMINISH
BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS. EXPECT A MORE DRAMATIC DROP ACROSS THE
UPPER KEYS, WHICH IS IN THE DIRECT LEE OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE MID 60S, WHILE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 40S.
WHILE THE ATLANTIC LOW WILL BE FAR AWAY BY TONIGHT, THE
CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ROBUST NORTHERLY BREEZES. IN ADDITION,
A WELL DEVELOPED LAND BREEZE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY NUDGE BREEZES
UPWARDS SLIGHTLY AND HELP TO FLUSH EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE KEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR 50 DEGREES.
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS MAY SEE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MID
30S. STABLE, RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
HEADING THROUGH MID WEEK, FAIRLY RAPID MODERATION IS EXPECTED.
THE EARLIER MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY MARCH EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA THEN ELONGATE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
BREEZES WILL RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY, THEN GRADUALLY CLOCK
NORTHEAST THEN EASTERLY. HOW QUICKLY WINDS VEER WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW COOL THE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE AND THE SYNOPTIC
PRESSURE GRADIENT. BAY WATERS WILL LIKELY COOL TO NEAR 60 BY
TUESDAY, BUT WARM QUITE A BIT OVER THE FOLLOWING COUPLE OF DAYS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE AND TRY TO SHIFT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC. AFTER ANOTHER COOL WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING, EXPECT A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE BACK
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED MID LATITUDE
TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SETTING UP A MOIST
CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THIS
POINT, RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER, THE BEST CONFLUENCE IS
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE KEYS REMAIN RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE LOWER RIDGE AXIS. IN ADDITION, WHILE BOUTS OF
ORGANIZED VEERING ARE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THE WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY ARE SMALL, OFTEN CUT SHORT BY CUBAN INHIBITION. FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 63 52 63 55 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 62 49 60 54 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FOR FLZ076.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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