970
FXUS62 KKEY 232021
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
321 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER, DRIER, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ZERO THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER
KEYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES CONTINUE TO AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
AND OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE. WATERS EAST OF
THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE ARE SEEING AN AFTERNOON LULL THANKS TO
DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE MAINLAND. HERE BREEZES ARE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH. THIS BRIEF LULL IS END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
AS A DRAINAGE WIND DEVELOPS OFF THE MAINLAND. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. FRESH BREEZES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
DRASTICALLY SLACKENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S., BREEZES WILL
MOMENTARILY PEAK AND LULL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN
BREEZES SLACKEN TO LIGHT TO GENTLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK,
WHILE GRADUALLY CLOCKING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
NORTHERLY CROSSWIND MAGNITUDE OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR
BOTH EYW AND MTH TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHILE BECOMING
MORE EAST OF NORTH.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTED THROUGH THE KEYS LATE YESTERDAY. THE
FRONT BROUGHT WITH IT STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BROADLY TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. DEW POINTS
PLUNGED INTO THE 40S. LAST EVENINGS SOUNDING CAME IN BEFORE THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY TOOK OFF. LOOKING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, VERY STABLE POST COLD FRONT CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. SKIES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS EVIDENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
A MID LATITUDE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIVE NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY WHILE A STRONG HIGH POURS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN ONLY SLIGHTLY TODAY. THIS
ALONG WITH DAY TIME HEATING SHOULD HELP TO SLIGHTLY DIMINISH
BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS. EXPECT A MORE DRAMATIC DROP ACROSS THE
UPPER KEYS, WHICH IS IN THE DIRECT LEE OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE MID 60S, WHILE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 40S.
WHILE THE ATLANTIC LOW WILL BE FAR AWAY BY TONIGHT, THE
CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ROBUST NORTHERLY BREEZES. IN ADDITION,
A WELL DEVELOPED LAND BREEZE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY NUDGE BREEZES
UPWARDS SLIGHTLY AND HELP TO FLUSH EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE KEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR 50 DEGREES.
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS MAY SEE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MID
30S. STABLE, RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
HEADING THROUGH MID WEEK, FAIRLY RAPID MODERATION IS EXPECTED.
THE EARLIER MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY MARCH EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA THEN ELONGATE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
BREEZES WILL RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY, THEN GRADUALLY CLOCK
NORTHEAST THEN EASTERLY. HOW QUICKLY WINDS VEER WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW COOL THE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE AND THE SYNOPTIC
PRESSURE GRADIENT. BAY WATERS WILL LIKELY COOL TO NEAR 60 BY
TUESDAY, BUT WARM QUITE A BIT OVER THE FOLLOWING COUPLE OF DAYS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE AND TRY TO SHIFT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC. AFTER ANOTHER COOL WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING, EXPECT A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE BACK
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED MID LATITUDE
TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SETTING UP A MOIST
CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THIS
POINT, RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER, THE BEST CONFLUENCE IS
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE KEYS REMAIN RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE LOWER RIDGE AXIS. IN ADDITION, WHILE BOUTS OF
ORGANIZED VEERING ARE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THE WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY ARE SMALL, OFTEN CUT SHORT BY CUBAN INHIBITION. FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 53 63 57 72 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 51 60 57 72 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FOR FLZ076.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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