953
FXUS62 KKEY 240334
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1034 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER, DRIER, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ZERO THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ITS SURROUNDING
WATERS THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY
BREEZES PREVAIL ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE OBSERVATION STATIONS BOTH
ALONG THE REEF AND IN THE BAYSIDE/GULFSIDE WATERS. THE EASTERLY
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THAT WERE NOTABLY IN THE LEE OF MAINLAND
FLORIDA AND EXPERIENCING A LULL IN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE NOW
SURGED BACK UP TO MATCH THE REST OF OUR AREA. KBYX RADAR IS CLEAR
OF PRECIPITABLE ECHOES AS IT HAS BEEN MOST OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE
GOES-19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHALLOW FIELD OF
STRATOCUMULUS BRUSHING OVER THE LOWER KEYS WHILE WISPS OF SMOKE
WAFT OVER AND AWAY FROM THE UPPER KEYS FROM A LARGE WILDFIRE ON
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FLORIDA. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S WITH MID 50S NOTED OVER THE UPPER KEYS. WHEN PAIRED
WITH DEWPOINTS BROADLY IN THE 40S, A COOL AND DRY NIGHT IS
CERTAINLY UNDERWAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY WILL GET EVEN COOLER BY TOMORROW
MORNING AS WE ENTER NIGHT TWO POST COLD FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY COOL, MODIFIED
CONTINENTAL AIR TO OUR AREA RESULTING IN LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F
ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, WITH EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER KEYS
WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S. BREEZES MAY
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF A SURGE TONIGHT WITH DRAINAGE FROM MAINLAND,
BUT WIND CHILL VALUES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S IN THE
UPPER KEYS AT THE LOWEST. FOLLOWING A COLD MORNING TOMORROW,
BREEZES WILL SLACKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL SET
UP A TYPICAL PATTERN OF EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES AS THE HIGH
STRETCHES OUT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC IN THE BACK HALF THE
WEEK. SOME RETURNING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AND EXTEND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY
STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THEY CLOCK
NORTHEAST THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TONIGHT. NEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL START OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS BEFORE VEERING TO JUST
EAST OF NORTH BY TOMORROW MORNING. CROSSWIND MAGNITUDES OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE WINDS START TO
SLACKEN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 53 63 57 72 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 51 60 57 72 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page