258
FXUS62 KKEY 241604
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1104 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME SMOKE FROM THE NATIONAL FIRE WILL FILTER IN AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY THE LOWER KEYS. MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS MAY
SEE SOME SMOKE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
- MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY
- NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO COLLAPSE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ZERO THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
ANOTHER SUNNY START TO THE DAY FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. HIGH PRESSURE
IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS MORNING WHICH
HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO BEGIN CLOCKING AROUND FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. THIS UNFORTUNATELY ALSO MEANS THAT SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES
ON THE MAINLAND, PARTICULARLY THE NATIONAL FIRE, WILL BE ADVECTED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AT TIMES TODAY. INITIALLY IT WILL AFFECT
MOSTLY THE LOWER KEYS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE GETS CLOSER IN PROXIMITY TO THE SUNSHINE STATE TONIGHT,
THE FLOW WILL BECOME EVEN LIGHTER AND MORE NEBULOUS. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SMOKE TO GATHER ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND SPILL OVER INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. THOSE WHO MAY BE SENSITIVE TO SMOKE
SHOULD TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 50S
BUT WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.
NO REAL CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. ONLY CHANGES WERE MADE
TO TIDY UP CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE ZONE FORECAST AND
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS HAVE
GREATLY CODE DOWN FROM THE OVERNIGHT AND WE WERE ABLE TO TRIM THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO JUST THE SOUTHWESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA,
WHERE SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE GULF WATERS, SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE FURTHER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO SEAS UP TO 8 FEET THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE GULF,
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND
SEAS FURTHER SUBSIDE. NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE COLLAPSING AS
EXPECTED WITH MODERATE BREEZES BEING REPORTING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE INTO THE SE U.S., BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SLACKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. AS A HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S., WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE VEERING TOWARDS THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEYS THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE LOWER KEYS TO UPPER
40S IN THE EASTERN UPPER KEYS. WINDY NORTHERLIES ARE ADDING TO
THE CHILL. THESE BREEZES ARE BEING DRIVEN BY BOTH A STRONG HIGH
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A FLORIDA LAND BREEZE. VERY DRY
AND STABLE POST COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
BASED AROUND 915 MB AND DEW POINTS BROADLY CENTERED AROUND 40
DEGREES.
THE CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL DRIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND STRETCH ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY THIS EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH DAY TIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY DIMINISHING BREEZES. EXPECT LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES BY THIS AFTERNOON. COOL CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO PUSH INTO THE MID 60S.
DESPITE THE COOL TEMPERATURES, DEW POINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE
30S MAY RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING BELOW 40%. STABLE
CONDITIONS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
ZERO RAIN CHANCE.
THE HIGH ACROSS FLORIDA WILL STEADILY MARCH EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THROUGH THIS, LIGHT
BREEZES WILL TRY TO VEER EASTERLY. HOWEVER, THE RECENT SHOT OF
COLD AIR HAS CHILLED FLORIDA BAY WATERS DOWN CLOSE TO 60 F. THIS
ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING FLOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY HOLD BREEZES BACKED NORTHEASTERLY. THIS IS OFTEN A
FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO THE EXPECTED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. IN ADDITION,
A MODEST LAND BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD OFF OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. EXPECT A GIANT SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT LOWS, RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 40S.
AT SOME POINT THIS WEEK NEARSHORE WATERS WILL WARM SUFFICIENTLY
TO LET WINDS SHIFT MORE EASTERLY. THIS MAY HAPPEN AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE LIFTS
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ALLOWING FOR MODESTLY
STRENGTHENING BREEZES. THEREAFTER, AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC, WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARDS TO A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE. IN TURN, CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE,
PUSHING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS
WILL HELP TO NUDGE THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CUBA AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND SETUP A MOIST CONFLUENT CONVEYOR IN THE
EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL BE A SLOWLY
EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
TIME BEING, THERE HAS BEEN SOME RUN TO RUN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THIS FEATURE AND ANY INFLUENCE ON THE KEYS. WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ054-055-074-075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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