741
FXUS62 KKEY 250354
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1054 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME SMOKE FROM THE NATIONAL FIRE WILL FILTER IN AT TIMES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS HANG ON FOR ONE MORE NIGHT, THEN A
GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY
- LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND GRADUALLY FRESHEN.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ZERO THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
A COOL AND DRY NIGHT LUMBERS ON FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX RADAR
IS UNSURPRISINGLY CLEAR OF METEOROLOGICAL ECHOES WITH GOES-19
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY NOTING ONLY A SHALLOW FIELD OF
STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. OFFSHORE OBSERVATION
PLATFORMS ARE RECORDING LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES BROADLY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL LAND STATIONS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH
THESE VARIABLES IN PLAY, ITS NO WONDER THAT A LARGE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH
LOCAL MAXIMUMS IN THE MID 50S AND THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES ALMOST
IN THE MID 40S. HIGHER TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY FOUND NEAREST
MARINE INFLUENCE WHILE LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE EITHER IN LEE OF OR
JUST MORE INLAND WHERE RADIATIVE COOLING CAN THRIVE. DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IMPLY THERE IS STILL MORE ROOM FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL.
THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES OF THE NIGHT ARE LIKELY TO HAPPEN EARLY ON
FOR A FEW REASONS. LAND BREEZES FROM MAINLAND SWEEPING THROUGH THE
UPPER KEYS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE KEYS LATER TONIGHT WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS INCREASE WIND SPEEDS. MEANWHILE, HIGHER
DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE STRAITS AS
FRESHENING EASTERLIES TAKE OVER. THAT COULD ALSO BRING SOME
DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER. ALL OF THIS TO SAY, THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES ARE SHORT LIVED. THIS EVENING'S KKEY 00Z BALLOON
SOUNDING SHOWS AN EXTREMELY DRY PROFILE WITH A RECORD LOW PW OF
0.17 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES ARE ESSENTIALLY ZERO TONIGHT. THAT WILL
START TO CHANGE IN THE BACK HALF OF THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHES OUT FROM MAINLAND FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC,
FRESHENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES AND BRINGING MOISTURE BACK
TO OUR LOWER TO MID LEVELS. THAT PATTERN WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE GUIDANCE HINTS AT ANOTHER POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE
AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENERALLY
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES WILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
WINDS WILL STEADILY CLOCK NORTHEAST THEN SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FOLLOWING COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH CELL STRETCHES OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC. A MODEST EASTERLY WIND SURGE IS EXPECTED FOR OUR
SOUTHERN WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
RIDGE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL TREND DOWNWARDS AS THE
HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL START LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 52 74 66 79 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 53 73 67 80 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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