625
FXUS62 KKEY 250937
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
437 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME SMOKE MAY FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE KEYS THIS MORNING FROM
A LARGE WILD FIRE IN COLLIER COUNTY.
- GRADUAL WARMING AND MOISTENING WILL BEGIN TODAY, PUSHING ABOVE
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
ITS BEEN A VERY COLD STRETCH FOR THE KEYS. THE RECORD MINIMUM
HIGH AT MARATHON WAS 60 DEGREES, SHATTERING THE OLD RECORD OF 66
DEGREES DATING BACK TO 1973. EARLIER IN THE NIGHT, RADIATIONAL
COOLING DROVE TEMPERATURES AT THE OFFICE DOWN TO 46 DEGREES. THE
EARLY RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS FOSTERED BY CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY
COLD HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS RESULTED IN
NEARLY CALM BREEZES. IN RECENT HOURS, LIGHT DIVERGENT NORTHERLY
BREEZES HAVE SETUP. WHILE GULF AND BAY WATERS ARE COLD, THEY STILL
HELPED TO WASH OUT MOST OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES
ARE NOW BROADLY IN THE LOWER 50S. DEW POINTS ARE STILL DOWN IN THE
LOWER 40S.
THE RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA WILL ELONGATE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHILE THE WESTERN FLANK LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS SHOULD HELP TO FIRM UP
BREEZES OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE HUGE UNKNOWN IS HOW SOON WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS AND
COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BE ABLE TO VEER EAST. EVENTUALLY
THIS SHIFT WILL HAPPEN AND HELP TO ACCELERATE MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. AT LEAST FOR TODAY, IT WILL LIKELY BE
DIFFICULT FOR TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 70S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT, HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BREEZES GRADUALLY CLOCKS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. SOME ORGANIZED
VEERING IS EXPECTED, AND THE FIRST HINTS OF THIS IS SHOWING UP AS
STRATOCUMULUS OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE UPPER KEYS, WELL
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LAND BREEZE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
STRATOCUMULUS TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE KEYS DUE TO THIS
VEERING FLOW.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY MAKE
THEIR APPEARANCE. THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING AROUND
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
SET UP A CONFLUENT ZONE IN THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA. THIS
WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY ERASE THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS ZONAL MID
AND UPPER LEVELS TRANSITION TO BROAD TROUGHING. DEW POINTS WILL
ALSO CLIMB TOWARDS 70 BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ALL THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CAPED AT SLIGHT AS THE
FORCING IS NOT STRONG AND LOWER TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND CUBAN
INFLUENCES WILL BE A MITIGATING FACTOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN BROADLY
EASTERLY AND TREND DOWNWARDS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE FINALLY DEPARTS
TO THE EAST.
NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE OR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POINTING TO POSSIBLY A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT LIMPING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ONLY
ACT TO BUMP UP NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BREEZES AND SHAVE A DEGREE OR
TWO OFF OF BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. THE FASTER FLOW MAY
BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MODERATED MARITIME BOUNDARY
LAYER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
LENGTHEN EASTWARD FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE COMPLICATED TO DESCRIBE. LAND
BREEZES AND AN INITIALLY WEAK GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY BREEZES NEAR THE MAINLAND, BUT BE VEERED
EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AS THE HIGH STRETCHES
EAST, THE WESTERN FLANK WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS SHOULD STRENGTHEN BREEZES AND OFFER A BIT MORE FORCE TO
SHIFT BREEZES EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY. NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THIS MORNING AND
WILL ACT TO DELAY THE INEVITABLE VEERING IN THESE AREAS.
MEANWHILE, THE STRENGTHENING SYNOPTIC GRADIENT AND BREEZES MAY
RESULT IN CAUTIONS FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THE HIGH WILL MORE FULLY DEPART TO THE EAST
LEAVING A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO GENTLE AND BROADLY EASTERLY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH DURING THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. WHILE SKC CONDITIONS ARE LISTED FOR BOTH TERMINALS,
OCCASIONAL BASES BETWEEN FL020 AND FL030 ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE, INCREASING TO 5 TO
10 KNOTS BEFORE SUNSET. EVENTUALLY, WINDS WILL PIVOT EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY, IN 2004, 1.92" OF RAIN FELL IN
KEY WEST IN A VERY SHORT TIME AS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PASSED
THROUGH, BREAKING THE RAINFALL RECORD FOR THE DATE AND CAUSING
WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ALSO PROBABLY
PRODUCED VIOLENT WATERSPOUTS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. PRECIPITATION
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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