256
FXUS62 KKEY 251551
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1051 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME SMOKE MAY FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE WILD FIRE IN COLLIER COUNTY.
- GRADUAL WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND WILL CONTINUE, PUSHING
ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS IS
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OUR WINDS AROUND OUT OF THE EAST. THE COOLER,
SHALLOW WATERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN HAS BEEN
RESISTING THIS VEERING MOTION. INSTEAD WINDS ACROSS THESE WATERS
ARE FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHILE MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WARM GULF
STREAM AND THE FLORIDA BAY IS VERY NOTICEABLE ON SATELLITE. ACROSS
THE WARM STRAITS OF FLORIDA WE SEE A FIELD OF STRATO-CU, NORTH OF
THE GULF STREAM WHERE THE WATER TEMPS QUICKLY FALL, SKIES ARE
CLOUD FREE, INDICATING A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH A NORTHEAST TO
EAST WIND BUT WE ARE SEEING THAT EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRYING TO NUDGE
INTO THE UPPER KEYS THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE WIND DIRECTION,
TEMPERATURES ARE STEADILY ON THE UP AND UP WITH VALUES RANGING
FROM 60 TO 70 DEGREES. AS WE GO MORE EASTERLY ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN AND REEF TRACT, THIS WILL HELP MODERATE OUR TEMPERATURES AND
ALLOW THEM TO RISE INTO THE 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN. THEREFORE, NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED OR MADE TO THE GOING
FORECAST CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR WATERS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OUT ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE A GRADUAL FRESHENING TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTIONS ACROSS THE
COOLER WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA
SHELF WILL REMAIN MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY BECOME
EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE IN THE
PROCESS OF VEERING OUT OF THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST.
THIS GRADUAL CLOCKING MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AS A RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SLIDES FURTHER EAST WHILE EXPANDING
BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS THE GULF BASIN. AS THIS RIDGE EXPANDS, A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
ITS BEEN A VERY COLD STRETCH FOR THE KEYS. THE RECORD MINIMUM
HIGH AT MARATHON WAS 60 DEGREES, SHATTERING THE OLD RECORD OF 66
DEGREES DATING BACK TO 1973. EARLIER IN THE NIGHT, RADIATIONAL
COOLING DROVE TEMPERATURES AT THE OFFICE DOWN TO 46 DEGREES. THE
EARLY RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS FOSTERED BY CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY
COLD HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS RESULTED IN
NEARLY CALM BREEZES. IN RECENT HOURS, LIGHT DIVERGENT NORTHERLY
BREEZES HAVE SETUP. WHILE GULF AND BAY WATERS ARE COLD, THEY STILL
HELPED TO WASH OUT MOST OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES
ARE NOW BROADLY IN THE LOWER 50S. DEW POINTS ARE STILL DOWN IN THE
LOWER 40S.
THE RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA WILL ELONGATE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHILE THE WESTERN FLANK LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS SHOULD HELP TO FIRM UP
BREEZES OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE HUGE UNKNOWN IS HOW SOON WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS AND
COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BE ABLE TO VEER EAST. EVENTUALLY
THIS SHIFT WILL HAPPEN AND HELP TO ACCELERATE MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. AT LEAST FOR TODAY, IT WILL LIKELY BE
DIFFICULT FOR TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 70S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT, HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BREEZES GRADUALLY CLOCKS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. SOME ORGANIZED
VEERING IS EXPECTED, AND THE FIRST HINTS OF THIS IS SHOWING UP AS
STRATOCUMULUS OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE UPPER KEYS, WELL
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LAND BREEZE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
STRATOCUMULUS TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE KEYS DUE TO THIS
VEERING FLOW.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY MAKE
THEIR APPEARANCE. THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING AROUND
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
SET UP A CONFLUENT ZONE IN THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA. THIS
WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY ERASE THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS ZONAL MID
AND UPPER LEVELS TRANSITION TO BROAD TROUGHING. DEW POINTS WILL
ALSO CLIMB TOWARDS 70 BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ALL THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CAPED AT SLIGHT AS THE
FORCING IS NOT STRONG AND LOWER TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND CUBAN
INFLUENCES WILL BE A MITIGATING FACTOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN BROADLY
EASTERLY AND TREND DOWNWARDS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE FINALLY DEPARTS
TO THE EAST.
NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE OR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POINTING TO POSSIBLY A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT LIMPING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ONLY
ACT TO BUMP UP NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BREEZES AND SHAVE A DEGREE OR
TWO OFF OF BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. THE FASTER FLOW MAY
BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MODERATED MARITIME BOUNDARY
LAYER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 72 67 79 70 / 0 0 10 20
MARATHON 72 67 78 71 / 0 0 10 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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