361
FXUS62 KKEY 251752
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1252 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUAL WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY FRESHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
- SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY FRESHEN THIS EVENING
AS A RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SLOWLY BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE GULF BASIN. STRONGEST BREEZES WILL BE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THEREAFTER,
THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WIDER SWATH OF EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLIES MOVE
ACROSS OUR WATERS. A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TAKING SHAPE
ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF WATERS WHICH WILL ACT TO WEAKEN
THE RIDGE AND BIFURCATE IT INTO TWO CELLS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AS A RESULT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE FOR BOTH ISLAND
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT EASTERLIES ARE NUDGING IN AND BY THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WE WILL HAVE AN EAST WIND FOR BOTH EYW AND
MTH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, WE COULD SEE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND PIVOT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EYW TERMINAL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SHOWER
FORMATION AND SUBSEQUENT EFFECTS, IF ANY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
ITS BEEN A VERY COLD STRETCH FOR THE KEYS. THE RECORD MINIMUM
HIGH AT MARATHON WAS 60 DEGREES, SHATTERING THE OLD RECORD OF 66
DEGREES DATING BACK TO 1973. EARLIER IN THE NIGHT, RADIATIONAL
COOLING DROVE TEMPERATURES AT THE OFFICE DOWN TO 46 DEGREES. THE
EARLY RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS FOSTERED BY CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY
COLD HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS RESULTED IN
NEARLY CALM BREEZES. IN RECENT HOURS, LIGHT DIVERGENT NORTHERLY
BREEZES HAVE SETUP. WHILE GULF AND BAY WATERS ARE COLD, THEY STILL
HELPED TO WASH OUT MOST OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES
ARE NOW BROADLY IN THE LOWER 50S. DEW POINTS ARE STILL DOWN IN THE
LOWER 40S.
THE RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA WILL ELONGATE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHILE THE WESTERN FLANK LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS SHOULD HELP TO FIRM UP
BREEZES OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE HUGE UNKNOWN IS HOW SOON WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS AND
COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BE ABLE TO VEER EAST. EVENTUALLY
THIS SHIFT WILL HAPPEN AND HELP TO ACCELERATE MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. AT LEAST FOR TODAY, IT WILL LIKELY BE
DIFFICULT FOR TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 70S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT, HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BREEZES GRADUALLY CLOCKS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. SOME ORGANIZED
VEERING IS EXPECTED, AND THE FIRST HINTS OF THIS IS SHOWING UP AS
STRATOCUMULUS OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE UPPER KEYS, WELL
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LAND BREEZE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
STRATOCUMULUS TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE KEYS DUE TO THIS
VEERING FLOW.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY MAKE
THEIR APPEARANCE. THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING AROUND
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
SET UP A CONFLUENT ZONE IN THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA. THIS
WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY ERASE THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS ZONAL MID
AND UPPER LEVELS TRANSITION TO BROAD TROUGHING. DEW POINTS WILL
ALSO CLIMB TOWARDS 70 BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ALL THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CAPED AT SLIGHT AS THE
FORCING IS NOT STRONG AND LOWER TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND CUBAN
INFLUENCES WILL BE A MITIGATING FACTOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN BROADLY
EASTERLY AND TREND DOWNWARDS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE FINALLY DEPARTS
TO THE EAST.
NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE OR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POINTING TO POSSIBLY A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT LIMPING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ONLY
ACT TO BUMP UP NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BREEZES AND SHAVE A DEGREE OR
TWO OFF OF BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. THE FASTER FLOW MAY
BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MODERATED MARITIME BOUNDARY
LAYER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 67 79 70 81 / 10 10 20 10
MARATHON 67 79 71 81 / 0 10 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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