238
FXUS62 KKEY 260317
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1017 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUAL WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY FRESHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
- SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1017 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
AN UNEVENTFUL NIGHT IN THE FLORIDA KEYS ROLLS ON. THIS EVENING'S
KKEY 00Z SOUNDING IS FAIRLY UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY WITH A
FAT INVERSION AT 850 MB MARKING THE START OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
ITS WIND PROFILE LOOKS TO BE VEERING AT THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
SIGNALING A PATTERN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. BOTH OF THESE FACTS
PLAY WELL INTO OUR CURRENT CONDITIONS. KBYX RADAR IS FREE OF ANY
PRECIPITABLE ECHOES AND HAS BEEN FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION IS EFFECTIVELY FORCED DOWN BY THE DRY AIR AND
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AROUND THIS
TIME WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN. THIS IS AIDED BY GENTLE TO MODERATE BROADLY EAST
BREEZES OBSERVED ACROSS OUR CWA.
A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE DOMINATING OUR WEATHER PATTERN.
IT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH OUT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
TONIGHT WHILE LEAVING ITS WESTERN FLANK SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST
COASTLINE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SHIFT WILL HELP NUDGE OUR
WINDS TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND AID IN A FRESHENING OF BREEZES
OVERNIGHT WITH FRESH BREEZES POSSIBLE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
THAT BEING SAID, WE ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST WINDS IN SOME PLACES DUE IN PART TO COOLER WATERS NORTH
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. THOSE SHOULD WARM IN THE SHORT TERM AS A
WARMING PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM
THE CARIBBEAN AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TOMORROW WILL HELP INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK
INTO OUR FORECAST AND CARRY IT INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1017 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS BUT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FROM SYNOPSIS, AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE REACHING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
PULL FURTHER EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AS A RESULT, BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FURTHER EAST
AND SOUTH OF EAST. WINDS WILL VARY QUITE A BIT DUE TO AN ONGOING
LAND BREEZE AND COLD NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES. THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE RIDGE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TONIGHT AND WILL
GENERALLY HELP TO FRESHEN BREEZES AS THEY SHIFT EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY. NEARSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN A NOTCH OR TWO
LOWER DUE TO STILL COOL WATERS. THEREAFTER, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY DUE TO THE GENERAL HIGHER PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND LOWER PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BROADLY OUT OF THE
EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 67 79 70 81 / 10 10 20 10
MARATHON 67 79 71 81 / 0 10 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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