043
FXUS62 KKEY 260910
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
410 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAPID WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, ACCOMPANIED BY SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES.
- A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SINKING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FROM CANADA IS FORECAST TO FRESHEN BREEZES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
RECORD BREAKING COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS CAME TO
AN END YESTERDAY. WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING DROPPED THE
TEMPERATURE AT THE KKEY OFFICE TO 46 YESTERDAY MORNING, EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RAPIDLY WARMED THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S BY AFTERNOON. PRE-SUNRISE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE KEYS
THIS MORNING ARE MEASURING IN THE UPPER 60S WITH LOWER
TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIORS OF THE LARGER ISLANDS. MORE
IMPORTANTLY, DEW POINTS SURGED FROM YESTERDAY'S LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S TO NEAR 60. ANYONE CONCERNED THAT THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH
WOULD BE A COLD ONE MAY REST ASSURED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF FEBRUARY.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST.
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL ALLOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TOMORROW. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, FED BY GULF MOISTURE, WOULD BE ABLE
TO AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AND SEND A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
THE CHALLENGE IS WHERE THAT FRONT STALLS, BECAUSE MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE KEYS.
WIND STREAMLINES THUS DO NOT RESOLVE STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR
SHOWERS TO FORM, AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL CUBAN
SHADOW. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING, OPTING TO LEAVE SHOWERS AT A
SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WOULD BE A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DESCENDING FROM CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE HIGH WOULD BE ABLE TO
QUICKLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES, IT WOULD BE WELL
DEVELOPED ENOUGH TO BUILD THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS
TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES IN THE STRAITS BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME BECAUSE THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE BREEZES WOULD DEPEND ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES, EXACTLY HOW STRONG
THE HIGH BECOMES, AND WHAT FOLLOWS IN THE HIGH'S WAKE. CHECK BACK
LATER, AND DO NOT BE SHOCKED IF BREEZY WORDING STARTS TO APPEAR IN
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THROUGH THIS PERIOD, RESULTING GENTLE TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL SLACKEN. HOWEVER,
IMPACTS FROM NEARBY LAND BREEZES AND COOLER WATERS NORTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN WILL MAKE CONDITIONS MORE CHAOTIC. OVER THE WEEKEND,
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PRIMED TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. BREEZES WILL SLACKEN TO LIGHT TO GENTLE AMIDST AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER COVERAGE. A REINFORCING HIGH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO
THE EASTERN US IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AND MAY PROMPT
RAPIDLY FRESHENING BREEZES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY WITH
OCCASIONAL BASES SHOWING UP BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL START OUT GENTLE TO MODERATE OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING, RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 79 69 80 69 / 0 10 0 20
MARATHON 79 70 81 69 / 0 10 0 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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