951
FXUS62 KKEY 261534
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1034 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAPID WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, ACCOMPANIED BY SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES.
- A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SINKING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FROM CANADA IS FORECAST TO FRESHEN BREEZES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
A WEAK, NARROW LAND BREEZE OFF CUBA PIVOTED NORTH TO NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA
KEYS. IN THE LOWER KEYS, BETWEEN RAMROD AND BAHIA HONDA KEYS, SOME
LOCATIONS ACTUALLY MANAGED TO PICK UP A QUICK ONE TO TWO-TENTH OF
AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS LINE THEN MOVED OUT OVER THE NEARSHORE GULF
WATERS AND HAS BEEN STEADILY DIMINISHING. MEANWHILE, A BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH THE AXIS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS IS MAINTAINING AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND AND HELPING TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM WHERE IN THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. WE ARE RIGHT ON
TARGET TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TODAY, IF NOT MAYBE BRIEFLY TOUCH 80
DEGREES! OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO NEAR ZERO
AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID, THIS MORNING'S
NARROW BAND WAS ABLE TO OVERCOME A DEEPLY ENTRENCHED DRY LAYER.
WHAT'S MORE IS THAT WE WERE ABLE TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DESPITE A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION WHEN THINKING ABOUT RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT AS A SIMILAR SITUATION MAY DEVELOP UNDER BETTER MOISTURE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
COOLER WATERS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE GULF AND FLORIDA BAY ARE
KEEPING BREEZES AT LIGHT TO GENTLE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE WARMER WATERS THE MARINE PLATFORMS ALONG THE
REEF TRACT ARE REGISTERING GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH POSSIBLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. REGARDLESS,
NO HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME AND NONE ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WHILE SLOWLY
SLIDING EASTWARD OVER THE COMING DAYS. THIS WILL PROMOTE A GRADUAL
SLACKENING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREAFTER, A COMBINATION OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND A NEW HIGH PRESSURE FILLING
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF
FRESHENING NORTHEAST BREEZES.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE EAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND EXACT PLACEMENT
ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
RECORD BREAKING COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS CAME TO
AN END YESTERDAY. WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING DROPPED THE
TEMPERATURE AT THE KKEY OFFICE TO 46 YESTERDAY MORNING, EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RAPIDLY WARMED THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S BY AFTERNOON. PRE-SUNRISE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE KEYS
THIS MORNING ARE MEASURING IN THE UPPER 60S WITH LOWER
TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIORS OF THE LARGER ISLANDS. MORE
IMPORTANTLY, DEW POINTS SURGED FROM YESTERDAY'S LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S TO NEAR 60. ANYONE CONCERNED THAT THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH
WOULD BE A COLD ONE MAY REST ASSURED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF FEBRUARY.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST.
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL ALLOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TOMORROW. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, FED BY GULF MOISTURE, WOULD BE ABLE
TO AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AND SEND A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
THE CHALLENGE IS WHERE THAT FRONT STALLS, BECAUSE MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE KEYS.
WIND STREAMLINES THUS DO NOT RESOLVE STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR
SHOWERS TO FORM, AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL CUBAN
SHADOW. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING, OPTING TO LEAVE SHOWERS AT A
SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WOULD BE A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DESCENDING FROM CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE HIGH WOULD BE ABLE TO
QUICKLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES, IT WOULD BE WELL
DEVELOPED ENOUGH TO BUILD THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS
TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES IN THE STRAITS BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME BECAUSE THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE BREEZES WOULD DEPEND ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES, EXACTLY HOW STRONG
THE HIGH BECOMES, AND WHAT FOLLOWS IN THE HIGH'S WAKE. CHECK BACK
LATER, AND DO NOT BE SHOCKED IF BREEZY WORDING STARTS TO APPEAR IN
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 79 69 80 69 / 0 10 0 20
MARATHON 79 70 81 69 / 0 10 0 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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