825
FXUS62 KKEY 270312
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1012 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR, OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL, BY FRIDAY.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, ACCOMPANIED BY SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES.
- A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SINKING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FROM CANADA IS FORECAST TO FRESHEN BREEZES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 944 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER LOVELY EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH
CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S, AND ACCOMPANYING DEW POINTS
NEAR 70F. OUR KBYX RADAR HAS A LITTLE EXCITEMENT TO OFFER AS SHOWERS
ARE CRAWLING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DISTANT FLORIDA STRAITS.
EARLIER THIS EVENING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED ALONG
THE NORTHERN CUBA COAST, AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY DRIFTED TO THE
NORTH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING FROM THIS
EVENING ISN'T NECESSARILY SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY, BUT
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO ENCOURAGE THESE SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE AS THEY TRACK CLOSER TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. WE
WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE, 10%, OF RAIN
FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO CHANGES OR UPDATES ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 944 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THROUGH THIS PERIOD,
RESULTING GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL
SLACKEN. HOWEVER, IMPACTS FROM NEARBY LAND BREEZES AND COOLER
WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL MAKE CONDITIONS MORE
CHAOTIC. OVER THE WEEKEND, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PRIMED TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. BREEZES WILL SLACKEN TO LIGHT
TO GENTLE AMIDST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE. A REINFORCING
HIGH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE EASTERN US IN THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND, AND MAY PROMPT RAPIDLY FRESHENING BREEZES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 944 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM
DISTANT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO INFREQUENT MVFR CIGS AROUND
10Z, BUT NOTABLE IMPACTS AT EITHER AIRPORT ARE NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 69 81 69 81 / 10 10 20 10
MARATHON 70 82 69 82 / 10 10 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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