708
FXUS62 KKEY 270920
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
420 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR NIL TO SLIGHT ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN THIS WEEKEND.
- A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SINKING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FROM CANADA IS FORECAST TO FRESHEN BREEZES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
FEBRUARY IS COMING TO AN ENDON A WARM NOTE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS. YESTERDAY'S HIGHS ROSE TO NEAR 80 IN KEY WEST, WHILE THE
UPPER 70S WERE MEASURED IN MARATHON. DEW POINTS ARE MEASURING IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. A COMPARISON TO
CIMSS MIMIC LAYER TPW ESTIMATES AROUND 1.25 INCHES OF PWAT OVER
THE KEYS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, A SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY FROM
THE 0.17 INCHES MEASURED ON TUESDAY EVENING BY THE 00Z KKEY
RADIOSONDE. CLOUD COVER WAS ABLE TO RETURN TO THE KEYS AS WELL.
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS OBSERVATIONS FROM GOES-E SHOW PULSES OF
SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUD AND OCCASIONAL CIRRUS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. ANEMOMETERS OUT AT THE REEF ARE MEASURING LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLIES, AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLACKEN BEFORE SUNSET.
WHILE THIS IS TEMPTING FATE, CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RATHER QUIET
TODAY FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS.
THE ANTICIPATED LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED
TO THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A FRONT IS FORECAST TO
STALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA ON SATURDAY, BECAUSE THE ENERGY IS
NOT PRESENT TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY INTO THE GULF. THIS WOULD BE WHY
WE MAY SEE A COL REGION OVER SOME OF THE NORTHERN WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BECAUSE THE KINEMATIC
FORCING IS NOT PRESENT. WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE IS SLIGHT IF
PRESENT, AND BACKING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL FURTHER LIMIT
SHOWER FORMATION. MARCH IS ON TRACK TO BEGIN RATHER UNEVENTFULLY
FOR THE KEYS.
THE FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR KEYS WEATHER THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL
NOT BE NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN AT ALL. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CANADA WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES ARE LIKELY MID WEEK. THE NEXT QUESTION WOULD BE IF
SUSTAINED WINDS WOULD EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
CURRENTLY, WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING WINDY WEATHER. THE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY INSTEAD OF
SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN STATES. KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FORECAST BECAUSE THE HIGH COULD MOVE FURTHER SOUTH, SLOW DOWN,
DEEPEN, OR BECOME WEAKER. SEASONAL CHANGES ARE CHAOTIC AND WE ARE
APPROACHING SPRING!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD AS A COUPLE OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS STALL
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AS A COL REGION FORMS NEAR THE NORTHERN WATERS ON SATURDAY. A
CUBAN SHADOW WILL KEEP SHOWER COVERAGE LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD.
NEXT WEEK, A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT RAPIDLY
FRESHENING BREEZES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. OCCASIONAL BASES ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
3500 AND 5000 FT, AND A FEW ROUNDS OF HIGH MVFR CEILINGS BASED AT
2000 TO 2500 FT ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST, BECOMING EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 71 80 68 / 10 20 10 30
MARATHON 81 70 81 67 / 10 20 10 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
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