771
FXUS62 KKEY 271556
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1056 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR NIL TO SLIGHT ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN THIS WEEKEND.
- A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SINKING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FROM CANADA IS FORECAST TO FRESHEN BREEZES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
24 HOURS NOW OF SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS CERTAINLY PUMPED UP THE
MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS ACROSS THE KEYS. IT WAS A WARM AND
SLIGHTLY MUGGY START TO THE DAY AND IT REMAINS SOMEWHAT MUGGY AS
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES ARE WELL
ON THEIR WAY TO NEAR 80 DEGREES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
INTERIOR OF THE LARGER ISLANDS WHICH WILL REACH INTO THE MID 80S.
OTHERWISE, A NARROW CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OFF CUBA MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE LOWER KEYS. THERE WERE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THIS NARROW
LINE BUT HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED.
THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING SHOWS THAT WE HAVE MOISTENED THE LOW
LEVELS, HOWEVER, WE REMAIN UNDER THE EFFECTS OF A MEAN LAYER
RIDGE. THIS IS SUPPRESSING MOST VERTICAL MOTION AND THEREFORE
POTENTIAL SHOWERS DO NOT HAVE THE LIFT NEEDED. EVEN IF THEY DID
HOWEVER, WE WOULD STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DRIER AIR ABOVE THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE. THEREFORE, MADE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS AN ATLANTIC RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EASTWARD, THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL ENTER A REGION OF LOWER PRESSURE
LEADING TO A COL OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY. AS A NEW HIGH DIVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FILLS
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
FRESHENING BREEZES FROM THE NORTHEAST STARTING AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY EVENING AND BECOMING MORE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES REMAINS HIGHLY LIKELY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
FEBRUARY IS COMING TO AN END ON A WARM NOTE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS. YESTERDAY'S HIGHS ROSE TO NEAR 80 IN KEY WEST, WHILE THE
UPPER 70S WERE MEASURED IN MARATHON. DEW POINTS ARE MEASURING IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. A COMPARISON TO
CIMSS MIMIC LAYER TPW ESTIMATES AROUND 1.25 INCHES OF PWAT OVER
THE KEYS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, A SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY FROM
THE 0.17 INCHES MEASURED ON TUESDAY EVENING BY THE 00Z KKEY
RADIOSONDE. CLOUD COVER WAS ABLE TO RETURN TO THE KEYS AS WELL.
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS OBSERVATIONS FROM GOES-E SHOW PULSES OF
SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUD AND OCCASIONAL CIRRUS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. ANEMOMETERS OUT AT THE REEF ARE MEASURING LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLIES, AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLACKEN BEFORE SUNSET.
WHILE THIS IS TEMPTING FATE, CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RATHER QUIET
TODAY FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS.
THE ANTICIPATED LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED
TO THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A FRONT IS FORECAST TO
STALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA ON SATURDAY, BECAUSE THE ENERGY IS
NOT PRESENT TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY INTO THE GULF. THIS WOULD BE WHY
WE MAY SEE A COL REGION OVER SOME OF THE NORTHERN WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BECAUSE THE KINEMATIC
FORCING IS NOT PRESENT. WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE IS SLIGHT IF
PRESENT, AND BACKING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL FURTHER LIMIT
SHOWER FORMATION. MARCH IS ON TRACK TO BEGIN RATHER UNEVENTFULLY
FOR THE KEYS.
THE FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR KEYS WEATHER THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL
NOT BE NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN AT ALL. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CANADA WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES ARE LIKELY MID WEEK. THE NEXT QUESTION WOULD BE IF
SUSTAINED WINDS WOULD EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
CURRENTLY, WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING WINDY WEATHER. THE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY INSTEAD OF
SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN STATES. KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FORECAST BECAUSE THE HIGH COULD MOVE FURTHER SOUTH, SLOW DOWN,
DEEPEN, OR BECOME WEAKER. SEASONAL CHANGES ARE CHAOTIC AND WE ARE
APPROACHING SPRING!
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 71 80 68 79 / 20 10 30 10
MARATHON 70 81 67 80 / 20 10 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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