080
FXUS62 KKEY 271943
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
243 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR NIL TO SLIGHT ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN THIS WEEKEND.
- A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SINKING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FROM CANADA IS FORECAST TO FRESHEN BREEZES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE KEYS ENTER AN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE. THIS IS DUE
TO A RETREATING RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD
TO A COL REGION WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL MOST NOTABLY BE SEEN ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. BY SUNDAY EVENING, A NEW HIGH PRESSURE DIVING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALLOW BREEZES TO CLOCK AROUND FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND FRESHEN. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES IS
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH BEGINNING AROUND SUNSET SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
FEBRUARY IS COMING TO AN END ON A WARM NOTE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS. YESTERDAY'S HIGHS ROSE TO NEAR 80 IN KEY WEST, WHILE THE
UPPER 70S WERE MEASURED IN MARATHON. DEW POINTS ARE MEASURING IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. A COMPARISON TO
CIMSS MIMIC LAYER TPW ESTIMATES AROUND 1.25 INCHES OF PWAT OVER
THE KEYS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, A SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY FROM
THE 0.17 INCHES MEASURED ON TUESDAY EVENING BY THE 00Z KKEY
RADIOSONDE. CLOUD COVER WAS ABLE TO RETURN TO THE KEYS AS WELL.
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS OBSERVATIONS FROM GOES-E SHOW PULSES OF
SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUD AND OCCASIONAL CIRRUS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. ANEMOMETERS OUT AT THE REEF ARE MEASURING LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLIES, AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLACKEN BEFORE SUNSET.
WHILE THIS IS TEMPTING FATE, CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RATHER QUIET
TODAY FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS.
THE ANTICIPATED LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED
TO THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A FRONT IS FORECAST TO
STALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA ON SATURDAY, BECAUSE THE ENERGY IS
NOT PRESENT TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY INTO THE GULF. THIS WOULD BE WHY
WE MAY SEE A COL REGION OVER SOME OF THE NORTHERN WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BECAUSE THE KINEMATIC
FORCING IS NOT PRESENT. WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE IS SLIGHT IF
PRESENT, AND BACKING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL FURTHER LIMIT
SHOWER FORMATION. MARCH IS ON TRACK TO BEGIN RATHER UNEVENTFULLY
FOR THE KEYS.
THE FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR KEYS WEATHER THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL
NOT BE NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN AT ALL. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CANADA WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES ARE LIKELY MID WEEK. THE NEXT QUESTION WOULD BE IF
SUSTAINED WINDS WOULD EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
CURRENTLY, WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING WINDY WEATHER. THE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY INSTEAD OF
SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN STATES. KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FORECAST BECAUSE THE HIGH COULD MOVE FURTHER SOUTH, SLOW DOWN,
DEEPEN, OR BECOME WEAKER. SEASONAL CHANGES ARE CHAOTIC AND WE ARE
APPROACHING SPRING!
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 69 80 68 79 / 20 10 20 10
MARATHON 68 81 67 80 / 10 10 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page