158
FXUS62 KKEY 280958
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
458 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE KEYS
DUE TO HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT BREEZES CLOCKING NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS CLOCKING NORTHWEST TO NORTH.
- A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SINKING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FROM CANADA IS FORECAST TO FRESHEN BREEZES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES ARE BEING DRIVEN
BY THE WESTERN END OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. THIS FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN A WARM AND
MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 70S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WHILE THERE IS SOME VEERING, VERY LOW
LEVEL INHIBITION AND LOWER TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS SHUT OUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PENINSULA WILL PUSH OUT THE SURFACE RIDGE.
THIS ALONG WITH DAY TIME HEATING WILL HELP TO RELAX BREEZES AS
THEY CLOCK SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW LEVEL INHIBITION AND LIMITED LOWER
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH
WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 70 ON OUR GULF WATERS
SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS.
THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS FLORIDA WILL LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS MODEST SURFACE RIDGING EXPANDS SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL HELP TO FIRM UP
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES. WINDS COMING IN OUT OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE COMPASS WILL HELP NUDGE DEW POINTS DOWN FURTHER INTO THE MID
60S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 70.
A LENGTHY STRETCH OF NEAR BREEZY OR BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SET IN HEADING INTO MID WEEK AS A BEEFY ANTICYCLONE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BREEZES WILL
BEGIN TRENDING UPWARDS LATE SUNDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THESE MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES WILL
GRADUALLY CLOCK FURTHER EAST NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST OVER THE
ENSUING DAYS AS THE HIGH BUILDS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A
FAIRLY STATIC PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 80,
LOWS NEAR 70, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THE FAST FLOW AND
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
THE WESTERN END OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD TODAY
AS TROUGHING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL SHIFT NORTH LATE TODAY,
REMAINING LIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL WASH OUT TONIGHT AS MODEST
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
TIP LIGHT BREEZES NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. THROUGH THE WEEK, A
BROAD HIGH CELL WILL DRIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND RAMP UP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT STEADILY
FRESHENING NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK, AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A MIX OF
CAUTIONS AND ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR KEYS WATERS FROM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO FOG DEVELOPING
NEARBY IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP SCT SKY CONDITIONS
NEAR FL010 IN CASE FRAGMENTS OF LOW CLOUDS APPROACH EITHER AIRPORT,
BUT ANY CATEGORY REDUCTIONS IN THE TAF PACKAGE WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL FOG ACTUALLY FORMS. RAIN CHANCES ARE VIRTUALLY ZERO, AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT THE SURFACE.
CLIMATE
THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IN 1944 WAS THE DRIEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD FOR
KEY WEST WITH ONLY A TRACE OF RAIN RECORDED. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO JANUARY OF 1871. THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IN 1955
WAS THE DRIEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD FOR MARATHON WITH ONLY A TRACE OF
RAIN RECORDED. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO JUNE OF
1950.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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