571
FXUS62 KKEY 281613
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1113 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE KEYS
DUE TO HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT BREEZES CLOCKING NORTHWEST TO
NORTH.
- A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SINKING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FROM CANADA IS FORECAST TO FRESHEN BREEZES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1113 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
IT'S A WARM AND MOIST START TO THE WEEKEND HERE IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS! WHILE KBYX RADAR IS FREE OF PERCEPTIBLE ECHOES IN OUR CWA,
A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS (THAT WERE THUNDERSTORMS) IS DETECTED
A LITTLE OVER 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF THE NORTH EDGE OF OUR
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. THE MAJOR STORY OF THE DAY IS SEEN ON
GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WHILE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
QUICKLY STREAM TO THE EAST OVER OUR AREA, SOME STREAKS OF LOWER
LEVEL STRATOCU MEANDER OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE SOUTH.
MEANWHILE, RIPPLES OF PATCHY FOG DRIFTING SOUTH FROM THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA ARE OBSERVED ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS. WHILE THE PATCHES ARE NOT AS THICK
AS A FEW HOURS AGO, THERE IS STILL A MASS OF FOG LOOMING NORTH OF
OUR WATERS. GENERALLY SOUTH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES PERSIST ALONG
THE REEF WITH LIGHT TO CALM CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
MOST DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
THE BIG FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY IS FOG. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR OR JUST BELOW 70F ALONG WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S ARE SUSTAINING THE FOG BANK OFF OF FLORIDA'S WEST
COASTLINE. A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE GULF WILL
SHOVE THE SURFACE RIDGE NOSED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA OUT INTO THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TODAY RESULTING IN OUR SOUTHERLY BREEZES
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATE. AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH, THERE LOOKS TO BE THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT
FOR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS TO ADVECT INTO OUR GULF WATERS AND
POSSIBLY OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. THE NATURE OF THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS IT
DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS WELL AS THE
MAINTENANCE OF OUR GULF SSTS AND AMBIENT DEW POINTS. RAIN
CHANCES, HOWEVER, CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NIL WITH A LACK OF FORCING
ALONG WITH SOME DRY AIR REMAINING IN THE MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES ARE BEING DRIVEN
BY THE WESTERN END OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. THIS FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN A WARM AND
MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 70S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WHILE THERE IS SOME VEERING, VERY LOW
LEVEL INHIBITION AND LOWER TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS SHUT OUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PENINSULA WILL PUSH OUT THE SURFACE RIDGE.
THIS ALONG WITH DAY TIME HEATING WILL HELP TO RELAX BREEZES AS
THEY CLOCK SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW LEVEL INHIBITION AND LIMITED LOWER
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH
WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 70 ON OUR GULF WATERS
SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS.
THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS FLORIDA WILL LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS MODEST SURFACE RIDGING EXPANDS SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL HELP TO FIRM UP
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES. WINDS COMING IN OUT OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE COMPASS WILL HELP NUDGE DEW POINTS DOWN FURTHER INTO THE MID
60S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 70.
A LENGTHY STRETCH OF NEAR BREEZY OR BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SET IN HEADING INTO MID WEEK AS A BEEFY ANTICYCLONE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BREEZES WILL
BEGIN TRENDING UPWARDS LATE SUNDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THESE MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES WILL
GRADUALLY CLOCK FURTHER EAST NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST OVER THE
ENSUING DAYS AS THE HIGH BUILDS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A
FAIRLY STATIC PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 80,
LOWS NEAR 70, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THE FAST FLOW AND
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1113 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL PULL FURTHER EAST WHILE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT BREEZES LIKELY
BECOMING VARIABLE LATER TODAY. THEREAFTER, A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, THEN
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT FRESHENING
BREEZES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A MIX OF
CAUTIONS AND ADVISORIES IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE
BULK OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR
EYW AND MTH. AS LIGHT NEAR SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH LATER
TODAY, A WINDOW OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS IT
ADVECTS IN FROM THE GULF. UNCERTAINTY IS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH AS
THESE FEATURES HAVE YET TO COALESCE AND DEPENDS ON WHEN THE WIND
DIRECTION CHANGES FROM VARIABLE TO NORTHERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 68 78 69 / 0 10 0 10
MARATHON 79 68 78 70 / 0 10 10 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page