907
FXUS62 KKEY 281840
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
140 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE KEYS
DUE TO HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT BREEZES CLOCKING NORTHWEST TO
NORTH.
- A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SINKING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FROM CANADA IS FORECAST TO FRESHEN BREEZES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT EYW AND MTH ASOS
OBSERVATIONS DUE TO CLOUD STREAMERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN. THESE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE SPORADIC AND SHORT LIVED IF
FURTHER OBSERVED. THINKING FOR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY HAS NOT
CHANGED. LIGHT NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH LATER
TODAY AND LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS IT ADVECTS IN
FROM THE GULF. UNCERTAINTY IS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH AS THESE
FEATURES HAVE YET TO COALESCE AND DEPENDS ON WHEN THE WIND
DIRECTION CHANGES FROM VARIABLE TO NORTHERLY. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
LINE IN WITH THE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT THAT DESCRIBES LOWER CIGS
AND VIS BUT OPTED TO KEEP IT IN VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PENINSULA WILL PUSH OUT THE SURFACE RIDGE.
THIS ALONG WITH DAY TIME HEATING WILL HELP TO RELAX BREEZES AS
THEY CLOCK SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW LEVEL INHIBITION AND LIMITED LOWER
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH
WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 70 ON OUR GULF WATERS
SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS.
THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS FLORIDA WILL LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS MODEST SURFACE RIDGING EXPANDS SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL HELP TO FIRM UP
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES. WINDS COMING IN OUT OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE COMPASS WILL HELP NUDGE DEW POINTS DOWN FURTHER INTO THE MID
60S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 70.
A LENGTHY STRETCH OF NEAR BREEZY OR BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SET IN HEADING INTO MID WEEK AS A BEEFY ANTICYCLONE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BREEZES WILL
BEGIN TRENDING UPWARDS LATE SUNDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THESE MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES WILL
GRADUALLY CLOCK FURTHER EAST NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST OVER THE
ENSUING DAYS AS THE HIGH BUILDS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A
FAIRLY STATIC PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 80,
LOWS NEAR 70, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THE FAST FLOW AND
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1113 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL PULL FURTHER EAST WHILE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT BREEZES LIKELY
BECOMING VARIABLE LATER TODAY. THEREAFTER, A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, THEN
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT FRESHENING
BREEZES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A MIX OF
CAUTIONS AND ADVISORIES IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE
BULK OF THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 68 78 69 79 / 10 0 10 10
MARATHON 68 78 70 78 / 10 10 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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